Chinese, Russian Anti-US Disinformation Flourishing In Africa

These findings also matter for counter-disinformation strategies. When strategic narratives capitalize on deep-seated attitudes and geopolitical histories and alliances, mere debunking of disinformation by means of fact-checking or media literacy campaigns is unlikely to succeed on its own.

Our study builds on previous research about disinformation and its impact on public opinion in the Global South .

We have previously identified the reasons why some people share disinformation , what people from different backgrounds do when they come across political disinformation and what can be done to curb the spread of false information.

In our latest study , we found that Russia's media outlets often portrayed Russia as a defender of sovereignty and traditional values while painting the West as hypocritical or imperialistic.

Similarly, Chinese media – CGTN , China Daily and Xinhua – emphasized China's role as a partner in Africa's development while downplaying or denying negative aspects of Chinese influence.

We found that Russian narratives were more widely accepted than Chinese ones across all countries. We asked respondents whether two statements that were examples of Russia's disinformation narrative were true. The statements were:

• The war in Ukraine is a consequence of NATO's expansion in Eastern Europe, and
• Sanctions against Russia are the main cause of the current food and energy crises.

More than 70% of survey respondents told us that they thought the statements were probably or definitely true.

Several fact-checking organizations have shown that these narratives are not true, but are commonly used by Moscow to advance its own strategic interests.

Chinese narratives were more polarizing and offered the most striking differences between countries. When asked about the statement,“If a war breaks out in Taiwan, it would be the United States' fault,” only 3 in 10 Zambians said that it was true, compared with 6 in 10 Ethiopians.

Differences between countries were much smaller when we looked at this statement:“Foreign forces organized anti-government protests in Hong Kong in 2019.”

Only in South Africa and Ethiopia did we find more than 50% of people believing this to be true.

One way to interpret these differences is by looking at the wider geopolitical alignment in each country at the time the survey was conducted.

In South Africa, despite the blocking of Russia Today (RT) on the satellite television service provider DStv in March 2022, Russian narratives still found significant support. This was likely influenced by the country's membership in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China South Africa) grouping, and the government's refusal to side with the West in condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia also draws on“memory diplomacy” by reminding African audiences of its past support for African liberation movements, such as the African National Congress, to boost support for its war on Ukraine.

South Africa is seen to drift away from its neutral stance towards stronger support for China and Russia.

Russian media are planning to capitalize on this sentiment by opening a bureau in Johannesburg.

In contrast, Zambia and Angola displayed more resistance to foreign narratives. Angola's historical ties with Russia, dating back to the Cold War, did not translate into strong support for Russian narratives, perhaps due to the country's ongoing efforts to diversify its international partnerships.

In Ethiopia, a key driver of the results appears to be anti-US sentiment. We found that 33% of Ethiopians believed the US to be an“enemy” (compared to 4% in Angola or 8% in Zambia), and 65% thought that US influence in their country was negative (compared to 17% in Angola or 22% in Zambia).

Anti-US rhetoric has been particularly prevalent in Ethiopian media and the political landscape in general in recent years, particularly after Washington's
criticism of the war in Tigray .

After considering multiple possible factors, we concluded that anti-US sentiment was the most consistent predictor of believing Russian and Chinese strategic narratives.

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In other words, those who saw the US in a negative light were much more likely to believe these narratives to be true.

We also found that the consumption of Chinese or Russian media had no effect on people supporting these narratives. What this means is that those who regularly consumed Chinese and Russian media content were not more likely to believe these narratives than those who didn't consume this content.

China and Russia have invested heavily in distributing their media content on the continent, but their audiences and the impacts of their media messages remain low.

Complex picture

Our research highlights the nuanced and complex ways in which public opinion forms across Africa. Disinformation does not operate in a vacuum. It is shaped by historical ties, economic dependencies and the local political landscape.

Counter-strategies would therefore have to include a focus on building positive attitudes and strengthening geopolitical ties to reduce the susceptibility to disinformation narratives.

Dani Madrid-Morales is a lecturer in journalism and global communication at the University of Sheffield Herman Wasserman is a professor and chair of the Department of Journalism, Stellenbosch University . Saifuddin Ahmed is an assistant professor of communication and information at Nanyang Technological University .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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