China's Belt And Road Hasn't Fast-Tracked Africa's Cities

China has influenced Africa's urbanization through the Belt and Road Initiative. Launched in 2013 , this infrastructure project aims to create a network of economic and trade routes connecting China and the rest of the world.

As of December 2023, 44 of 54 African countries had signed on to the Belt and Road Initiative. It's estimated that through this initiative, China has invested 2.5 times more in African infrastructure development than all Western countries combined .

Investing in infrastructure can have substantial multiplier effects on economic growth and development . In the short term, it generates demand for goods and services, especially in construction.

Over the long term, if well-planned and executed, it can boost economic growth and development. This is particularly true for urban infrastructure investments. Cities thrive on their ability to link labor to firms, firms to each other for inputs, and businesses to domestic and export markets.

China's experience at home has shown how this can be done. In less than a decade, China developed the world's most extensive high-speed rail network at costs up to a third lower than those in other countries.

And between 1980 and 2000, China constructed over 184 new ports, many in collaboration with foreign companies , to ease the export of goods it was producing in its expanding economy.

These massive infrastructure investments have driven China's economic transformation from a largely agrarian economy to the world's second-largest economy . This shift through urbanization and industrialization, in turn, has helped China lift more than 800 million people out of poverty since 1978.

African countries have yet to fully realize the potential benefits to urbanization of China's infrastructure spending. Some of the most expensive investments under the Belt and Road Initiative remain disconnected and risk becoming“white elephants.”

These include Kenya's Standard Gauge Railway . The Kenyan government took on high levels of debt to finance it. But the line's commercial viability depends on its extension to Uganda and Rwanda, which has yet to happen.

In Uganda, another example is the expressway between Entebbe airport and Kampala, the capital city. It was financed and built by the Chinese. The project's ballooning costs have made it one of the most expensive roads per kilometer in the world . Repayment of the Chinese loans will be challenging unless the road attracts much more traffic and generates sufficient toll revenue.

The other issue with some Chinese-financed projects relates to long-term planning.

For example, the urban light rail in Addis Ababa was built at a cost of $475 million and began operating in 2015. Having underestimated the operational and maintenance costs, the Ethiopian government is now struggling to sustain the system.

The light rail, which is transporting a fraction of the passengers compared to initial projections , requires an estimated $60 million in repairs .

The lack of transparency accompanying China's lending has led critics to call these types of projects“debt-trap diplomacy .” In essence, they claim China is deliberately extending loans to African countries under terms that are difficult to repay so that borrowers will have to surrender assets when they default.

But there are three observations worth making. First, commercial loans from Western entities or multilateral institutions still dominate lending to many African countries.

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Second, China is also concerned about debt sustainability and repayment of its loans. For this reason, its financing to African countries in terms of the Belt and Road Initiative dropped by 55% between 2021 and 2022 from $16.5 billion to $7.5 billion.

Finally, this narrative overlooks the agency of African leaders in negotiating and approving Chinese financing deals.

These loans are signed off by African ministers and ratified by parliaments and presidents. Therefore, African leaders are accountable for making productive investment decisions on behalf of citizens whose taxes will need to be used for repayment.

China's expertise

With over two decades of Chinese investment in rapidly urbanizing Africa and likely much more to come, it is now crucial to evaluate what has been successful and identify areas for improvement.

China possesses credible expertise in urbanization. It has recent experience in managing an urban transition much like the one currently unfolding in Africa. This transition took place alongside economic transformation and poverty reduction.

So it has a role in shaping African urbanization, benefiting both sides. But it's up to African leaders to champion their priorities.

Astrid R N Haas is adjunct professor, University of Toronto

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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