(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and
weather patterns. Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the
sun's activity or large volcanic eruptions,
Azernews reports.
But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver
of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels
like coal, oil and gas.
Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act
like a blanket wrapped around the Earth, trapping the sun's heat
and raising temperatures.
There are some basic well-established scientific links:
The concentration of GHGs in the earth's atmosphere is directly
linked to the average global temperature on Earth;
The concentration has been rising steadily, and mean global
temperatures along with it, since the time of the Industrial
Revolution;
The most abundant GHG, accounting for about two-thirds of GHGs,
carbon dioxide (CO2), is largely the product of burning fossil
fuels.
The new Emissions Gas Report by the UN Environment Programme
finds that there has been progress since the Paris Agreement was
signed in 2015. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, based on policies
in place, were projected to increase by 16 percent at the time of
the agreement's adoption. Today, the projected increase is 3 per
cent. However, predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions still must
fall by 28 per cent for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and 42 per
cent for the 1.5°C pathway.
Global warming of 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels has been
caused by over a century of burning fossil fuels and unequal,
unsustainable energy and land use. This has led to an increase in
the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which have
caused dangerous impacts on nature and people worldwide.
Each increment of warming results in rapidly escalating hazards,
such as more intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall, and other weather
extremes that increase risks for human health and ecosystems.
Climate-driven food and water insecurity is expected to increase
with increased warming. When these risks combine with other adverse
events, such as pandemics or conflicts, they become even more
difficult to manage.
To close the gap between existing adaptation and what is needed,
accelerated action to adapt to climate change is essential in this
decade. Keeping warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
requires deep, rapid, and sustained greenhouse gas emissions
reductions in all sectors. Emissions should be decreasing by now
and will need to be cut by almost half by 2030 if warming is to be
limited to 1.5°C
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up
by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations
Environment to provide an objective source of scientific
information.
According to the Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment
Report, there are multiple, feasible, and effective options to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate
change, and they are available now. The IPCC proposes adopting a
“climate-resilient development” that involves integrating measures
to adapt to climate change with actions to reduce or avoid
greenhouse gas emissions in ways that provide wider benefits.
For instance, access to clean energy and technologies can
improve health, especially for women and children. Low-carbon
electrification, walking, cycling, and public transport can enhance
air quality, improve health, employment opportunities, and deliver
equity. Economic benefits for people's health from air quality
improvements alone would be roughly the same, or possibly even
larger than the costs of reducing or avoiding emissions.
Climate-resilient development becomes progressively more
challenging with every increment of warming. Therefore, the choices
made in the next few years will play a critical role in deciding
the future of our planet and the generations to come.
To be effective, these choices need to be rooted in our diverse
values, worldviews, and knowledges, including scientific knowledge,
Indigenous Knowledge, and local knowledge. This approach will
facilitate climate-resilient development and allow locally
appropriate, socially acceptable solutions.
What we know based on the IPCC reports:
It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the
atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the
atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.
The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole
– and the present state of many aspects of the climate system – are
unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years.
Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that
are highly vulnerable to climate change.
Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs
substantially among and within regions.
If global warming transiently exceeds 1.5°C in the coming
decades or later, then many human and natural systems will face
additional severe risks, compared to remaining below 1.5°C.
In October 2018 the IPCC issued a special report on the impacts
of global warming of 1.5°C, finding that limiting global warming to
1.5°C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes
in all aspects of society. With clear benefits to people and
natural ecosystems, the report found that limiting global warming
to 1.5°C compared to 2°C could go hand in hand with ensuring a more
sustainable and equitable society. While previous estimates focused
on estimating the damage if average temperatures were to rise by
2°C, this report shows that many of the adverse impacts of climate
change will come at the 1.5°C mark.
The report also highlights a number of climate change impacts
that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5oC compared
to 2oC, or more. For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would
be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The
likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be
once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at
least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90
percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (>
99 percent) would be lost with 2oC.
The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would
require“rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy,
industry, buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused
emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45
percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching 'net zero' around 2050.
This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced
by removing CO2 from the air.
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