Crucially Limited Buy-In To Ukraine Peace Summit

China, which has become more closely aligned to Russia since the war started, has also said it won't take part, given Moscow's absence. Zelensky, in turn, has accused China of working with Russia to dissuade countries from attending.

The Ukrainian government says it will prioritize nuclear safety, food security and the return of prisoners and child deportees at the summit. These likely offer the best prospects for consensus. The government feels it may need to move onto the other points gradually.

The Swiss have also downplayed expectations of major progress. They have suggested a second follow-up conference may be needed, in which Russia could be included.

Another major objective will be to reinforce support for the idea that any settlement must entail restoring Ukraine's recognized borders, which Russia previously agreed to in a 2004 treaty .

To make this point, Ukraine invokes Article 2 of the UN Charter , requiring states not to use force against the territorial integrity of other countries.

This principle has been reinforced over the years by numerous UN Security Council resolutions, notably on the Israel-Palestine conflict, that affirms the“inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by force.”

As I have argued elsewhere , the international community as a whole has consistently respected this stance on territorial conquest over the past 60 years.

In addition, at least 141 countries voted in three UN General Assembly resolutions in 2022 and 2023 to condemn Russia's invasion and demand that it withdraw from Ukraine. Just a handful of nations voted with Russia against the resolutions.

Ukraine pursued the summit partly as a counter to proposals floated by some countries or individuals that imply Ukraine may have to lose territory permanently in any ceasefire agreement. This could include Crimea and the eastern Donbas region.

For Ukraine, however, this is more than just territory. Before the war, several million Ukrainians lived in these regions. Many have since fled, but those who remain are being subjected to a brutal occupation regime . For the Crimean Tatars , that is their only homeland.

Despite many countries backing Ukraine's position in the UN, most of the Global South has been reluctant to apply diplomatic or trade sanctions against Russia. Some oppose the idea of unilateral sanctions (that is, not endorsed by the UN).

Russia itself has been very active diplomatically in the Global South and is giving several countries military support, notably in Africa . As a result, many non-Western countries have hedged their bets. They do not want to get caught up in what they see as a fight between the West and Russia, backed by China.

Many of these governments and their people are also skeptical about the Western invocation of a rules-based order. This stems in part from the West's past unilateral actions, such as the 2003 Iraq invasion. Western support for Israel (or at least lukewarm criticism) over the Gaza war has only entrenched such skepticism.

Russia says a full withdrawal of its troops is a non-starter for negotiations. And without Russian participation in the summit – and with questions over buy-in from the Global South – expectations are modest for major practical outcomes. Some reports say a draft statement may not even cover questions of territorial integrity.

Nevertheless, it will be a chance to put Ukraine's plight back in the spotlight after months of focus on Gaza. It will also be a valuable step if the summit can strengthen global opposition to Russia's territorial conquest.

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As historian Yuval Noah Hariri puts it, non-Western powers should act to protect the international order – not out of obligation to the West, but for their own benefit, to prevent a new age of imperialism.

Jon Richardson is Visiting Fellow, Centre for European Studies, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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