(MENAFN) In a recent report released by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), a Singapore-based institution, China's economic trajectory for the year has been significantly upgraded. Forecasts now predict a growth rate of 5.3 percent, surpassing both China's official target of 5 percent and Bloomberg's estimate of 4.6 percent. This optimistic outlook stems from several key factors, notably the resurgence of the Chinese property sector and a notable uptick in external demand.
The AMRO report underscores the pivotal role China plays in driving regional growth within the ASEAN+3 framework, comprising Southeast Asian countries alongside Japan, South Korea, and China itself. Hoe Ee Khor, the chief economist at AMRO, highlighted the resilience of China's economy, emphasizing its capacity to act as a powerhouse within the region. Despite recent challenges, particularly within the real estate sector, Khor expressed confidence that ongoing policy measures and stabilization efforts would gradually mitigate the adverse impacts.
The turbulence in China's property market, which initially ignited concerns over financial stability, has been attributed to the struggles of major real estate players such as China Evergrande Group and Country Garden, both grappling with substantial debt defaults.
Nevertheless, AMRO anticipates a gradual turnaround in the sector, projecting a potential bottoming out of the growth drag as early as this year.
Beyond China, AMRO's revised growth projections also extend to the broader ASEAN region, with expectations of a 4.5 percent expansion this year compared to 4.3% in the previous year.
This upward revision is anchored in resilient domestic demand, fueled by a resurgence in investment activities and sustained consumer spending.
Moreover, the report sheds light on the significance of ASEAN's six major economies, comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. These nations are poised to significantly contribute to global growth, collectively accounting for an average of 10 percent between 2024 and 2030, according to experts cited in the report.
In summary, the AMRO report paints a cautiously optimistic picture of the economic landscape within the ASEAN+3 region, with China's robust growth prospects driving the momentum forward. While challenges persist, particularly in the real estate sector, proactive policy measures and sustained demand dynamics are poised to underpin a gradual recovery, offering promising prospects for regional economic resilience and expansion.
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