Australian Dollar Q2 Technical Forecast: AUD/USD And AUD/JPY

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3/29/2024 9:11:09 PM

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Host: Duration: min 01:03:58 widgets/economicCalendar._abbr () Actual Forecast PreviousRevised EUR/USD Mixed
7h Last updated:Mar 29, 2024
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Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News Euro Outlook - Market Sentiment Signals for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY 2024-03-28 16:30:00 US Dollar Latest – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecasts Ahead of US Data 2024-03-28 08:53:41 Oil - US Crude Bullish

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Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News Crude Oil Q2 Technical Forecast - WTI and Brent. What Looms Ahead? 2024-03-29 14:00:10 Crude Oil Prices Slip Again As US Inventories Increase, OPEC Meet Eyed 2024-03-27 13:00:00 Wall Street Bullish

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Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News Equities Q2 Fundamental Outlook: AI Euphoria, US Election and the Fed to Drive US Stocks 2024-03-29 10:30:25 Dow Revival Targets 40,000, while Nasdaq 100 Drifts Down and Hang Seng Losses Stabilise 2024-03-28 11:30:17 Gold Mixed

Long Short
Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News Gold, Silver Q2 Technical Forecast: Key Resistance in Focus as Markets Get Stretched 2024-03-29 21:00:00 Gold, Silver Price Update: XAU/USD Rises on a Softer Dollar, Silver Withers 2024-03-26 15:09:20 GBP/USD Mixed
7h Last updated:Mar 29, 2024

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Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News British Pound Q2 Technical Outlook - GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/JPY Technical Outlooks 2024-03-29 07:00:00 Pound Sterling Update: UK Recession Confirmed by Final GDP Data, GBP Mixed 2024-03-28 14:00:42 USD/JPY Bearish
7h Last updated:Mar 29, 2024

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Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News Japanese Yen Q2 Technical Forecast: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY at Critical Juncture 2024-03-29 03:30:00 US Dollar Latest – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecasts Ahead of US Data 2024-03-28 08:53:41 MoreView More

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AUD/USD Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
AUD/JPY Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

This article explores the technical outlook for the Australian dollar , focusing primarily on AUD/USD and AUD/JPY . For a more comprehensive perspective, access the fundamental forecast by downloading the complete second-quarter trading guide.
Recommended by David Cottle Get Your Free AUD Forecast Get My Guide AUD/USD Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
AUD/USD remains in a long-term or 'secular' downtrend channel which has been in place since mid-February 2021. The base of this band has been very well respected, to the point where the relatively brief fall below it in the second half of 2022 looks like an aberration.
The pair has support at the fourth Fibonacci retracement of the fast rise to those 2021 peaks from the lows of March 2020. That comes in at 0.6468.
It's notable that any return to the 0.70 handle or above this year would very likely see this downtrend broken. If this can occur durably it would clearly be significant for the Aussie. While a rise to those levels looks unlikely in the coming quarter, bulls may be able to build a base from which they can attempt it later in the year.
AUD/USD Weekly Chart
Source: TradingView, Prepared by David Cottle
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Recommended by David Cottle Traits of Successful Traders Get My Guide AUD/JPY Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
AUD/JPY has been rising quite consistently for the past two years, with that uptrend itself only an extension of the long rise seen since March 2020.
That uptrend has now taken the Aussie to highs not seen against its Japanese rival for more than nine years. AUD/JPY has also nosed above an admittedly very broad trading band which had previously held since April 2022.
If AUD bulls can sustain these levels, then the next key upside target will be the high of mid-November 2014, at 102.72. Still, gains have been rapid and some pause for consolidation may be seen in the near-term, even if they keep AUD/JPY in the upper half of its former trading range.
The Bank of Japan rocked markets in March by finally stepping away from its zero-interest rate policy. However, as the Australian Dollar's continuing rise shows, Japanese yields remain unattractive by comparison with peer currencies' and will continue to do so for some time.
AUD/JPY Weekly Chart
Source: TradingView, Prepared by David Cottle

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