Deterrents To A Hamas-Style North Korea Border Raid

The CMA's raison d'être, aimed at decreasing inter-border clashes, has lost its justification due to recent shifts in global security concerns wherein previously unthinkable military moves, like Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine and subsequent drone warfare, have become the new norm.

This has required the alliance to reconsider and revok e the clause prohibiting DMZ ISR activities.

North Korea's launching of its
first reconnaissance satellite , condemned by the international community due to its use of illegal ballistic missile technology that threatens the“global nonproliferation regime ,” has resulted in a game of brinkmanship, leading to the complete abandonment of the CMA on November 23.

In this volatile security landscape, the rapidly changing demographics of the ROK represent a wake-up call for both the ROK and Democratic People's Republic of Korea, as the North is formally known.

With roughly 1.32 million foreign residents in the greater Seoul metropolitan area (GSMA) within 50 kilometers (30 miles) of the DMZ, an unprecedented challenge has emerged for both Koreas.

The involvement of numerous countries as prime stakeholders protecting the lives of their citizens transforms potential incidents involving hostages, or casualties in the GSMA, from a purely inter-Korean issue to an international crisis.

For the DPRK, the existence of diverse stakeholders offers strategic advantages, buying time and creating extra room to maneuver. The recent Hamas attack and international hostage abductions resulted in extremely complex multilateral negotiations involving the US, Israel, Hamas, Qatar and Egypt .

An established international entity, preferably a security-related one, would have facilitated the negotiation much more easily, but the lack thereof stalled subsequent hostage release deals.

Interestingly, this changing landscape is not actually disadvantageous for the ROK. In fact, while the Yoon Suk Yeol administration's attempt to revitalize the United Nations Command (UNC) must have been planned long before the Hamas attack, its plan to galvanize the long-quiescent structure has gathered international attention.

The UNC, much like NATO, functions not only as a collective defense mechanism but also to protect the increasing number of foreign nationals in Korea. No longer a pure battle command, the UNC has managed inter-border military and civilian issues over the last several decades under the 1953 Armistice.

On November 14, a ministerial-level conference in Seoul – with all 17 UN sending states, or countries that contributed combat troops or supporting personnel in the 1950 Korean War – reaffirmed
the spirit of the 1953 Armistice and pledged that they would repel any future attack on the ROK.

The revitalization of the UNC appears an attractive countermeasure in the event of international-scale hostage abductions or casualties due to DPRK attacks. The UNC, a coherent entity with military and government representatives from around the world, can facilitate international negotiations as the sole conduit to prevent inter-agency and inter-country complications and confusions, drawing on its time-tested experience in dealing with civilian populations.

Of course, some might argue that subtle and sensitive negotiations are not always suited for the military. They might also contend that civilian foreign service officers and personnel specializing in hostage negotiations would be more appropriate. However, such claims themselves further justify the revitalization of the UNC in regard to ramping up its manpower and inviting the presence of such specialists.

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This approach addresses legitimate concerns about the need for diplomatic and negotiation expertise within the UNC, ensuring a comprehensive and well-rounded approach to addressing complex international challenges.

The ROK, traditionally a very homogenous nation, is embracing rapid immigration and the presence of foreign laborers due to its birth rate crisis . Next year alone, a record number of approximately 160,000 new, legal foreign laborers will arrive, taking up positions at small local farms and factories, some of which are located within 30 miles of the DMZ.

With the presence of foreign nationals, including those represented by the UN sending states and the UN Command, any DPRK move that jeopardizes their safety would prompt the Yoon administration to reinforce the UNC with support from relevant member states.

Such a scenario goes against the DPRK's best interests. Despite the traditional DPRK rhetoric calling for dismantling the UNC (given the UNC's position outside of the UN's direct purview ), the current security circumstances do not favor any reckless actions from the DPRK.

The changing demographic landscape and increased international presence in South Korea make it imperative for the DPRK to tread cautiously.

James JB Park is a former staff member of the Korean Presidential Blue House and National Security Council. A reserve officer of the Republic of Korea Army, he is currently pursuing graduate studies at Columbia University in the United States.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the ROK government, the Presidential Blue House or the ROK military. This article was first published by Pacific Forum and is republished with permission.

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