N Korea's Transformation On Reunification Marks Paradigm Shift

US President Joe Biden's administration reversed his predecessor Donald Trump's outreach policie to North Korea, while in 2022 , South Korean president-elect Yoon Suk Yeol declared his administration would designate North Korea as the country's“main enemy” after North Korean missile tests.

The US and South Korea launched the US-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in 2023 to strengthen deterrence and cooperation on nuclear and contingency planning, while Yoon stated in December 2023 that a“nuclear-based, powerful Korea-US alliance” would be formed to deter Pyongyang. Additionally, greater military cooperation under Biden among South Korea, the US and Japan may have further incentivized North Korea.

Amid worsening relations with its adversaries, North Korea's foreign policy is increasingly aligned with its major partners.

Russia and China, once occasional collaborators with the US on North Korea issues, have hindered US measures against Pyongyang as their own relations with Washington have worsened. Widespread sanctions on China and especially Russia in recent years have prompted them and other countries to work around the sanctions through increased mutual trade and assistance with North Korea.

North Korea came to rely on China after the collapse of the Soviet Union but has strengthened its partnership with Russia since the start of the Ukraine war. South Korea's support for Ukraine saw Russia include it in its list of“unfriendly countries ,” easing Moscow's limitations on aiding North Korea's military.

In return for receiving energy, food, and space and weapons technology, North Korea has supplied missiles , artillery and other weapons to Russia.

Military assistance to North Korea meanwhile allows Russia to raise the security costs for the US, South Korea and Japan, which Russia declared in January 2024 were preparing for war with North Korea . Boosting North Korea's abilities may distract the US from aiding Ukraine and complicate its efforts to deter increasing Chinese activities around Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Washington has also intensified attempts to sanction numerous countries to a level not seen in decades. The increasing number of countries attempting to circumvent traditional networks may have persuaded North Korea that it is no longer as susceptible to isolation from the global economy as it was in decades past.

Utilizing Russia as a conduit, North Korea has already increased engagement with other sanctioned states such as Iran and Syria .

In recent decades, the waning of the prospect of Korea's reunification has also paralleled a global trend. Country unification has become increasingly rare compared with state fragmentation.

The last two major reunifications, Germany and Yemen, occurred in 1990, with the reunification of East and West Germany often cited as a model for Korea. But the absorption of the far smaller East Germany by the far larger West Germany contrasts to South Korea's population being only double that of North Korea .

Familial links between North and South Korea have also dwindled significantly since 1953 and income gaps have widened. Bringing East Germany up to West German social standards has meanwhile cost more than US$2 trillion , with lingering cultural differences between them – challenges that would be even more pronounced in Korea.

And in contrast to Germany's relative success, Yemen's reunification attempts since 1990 have been marred by ongoing violence and instability .

Faced with these realities, growing numbers of South Koreans, particularly younger generations , no longer want reunification with the North, trends that may solidify as the population difference between the two countries may reverse by the end of the century .

Concerns remain that though North Korea may not actively pursue forceful unification, there is a potential for an escalation in destabilization tactics. In 2010 , a suspected North Korean missile sank the ROKS Cheonan, a South Korean naval vessel, killing 46 servicemen.

Months later , North Korean shelling of Yeonpyeong Island left two South Korean servicemen and two South Korean civilians dead. Although full-scale conflict was avoided, South Korea's government may now not show as much restraint, and North Korea has increased its shelling near Yeonpyeong Island in recent weeks.

With Washington distracted in Ukraine and the Middle East, it has become harder for it to punish North Korea effectively for missile launches and military posturing. But open conflict or serious escalation might be deemed too risky by Kim Jong Un. While Russia and China may welcome distractions from their own territorial ambitions, a flare-up in the Korean Peninsula may be too close to home for Moscow and Beijing.

Recognizing the aversion of major powers to the instability associated with the collapse of a nuclear-armed North Korean government, Kim may choose to test the US and South Korea without the allure of reunification as a bargaining chip. Distracting Washington but steering clear of serious escalation would ensure his long-term rule and is an approach that both Moscow and Beijing could support.

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Capitalizing on perceived greater leverage, Pyongyang has reverted to the Cold War-era strategy of playing Moscow and Beijing off one another. After the visit by North Korea's foreign minister to Moscow in January, state media invited Russia President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang, dubbing him“the Korean people's closest friend ,” language usually reserved for China.

But in contrast to the later stages of the Cold War, the foreign-policy alignment of North Korea, Russia and China against Washington has made confronting them more formidable.

South Korea's position

In AD 936 , the Goryeo dynasty managed to reunify Korea after centuries of division. Today, Pyongyang's recent policy shift has halted Korea's current reunification process, shaping a new chapter in the peninsula's history.

South Korea now faces the crucial decision of upholding its reunification policy and championing pan-Korean nationalism , or abandoning these ideals and more permanently dividing the two countries. Seoul's decision to downsize and repurpose the Ministry of Unification in mid-2023 offers some insight into the direction it is leaning toward.

Though the prospect of reunification could return, the joint admission of North and South Korea to the United Nations in 1991, while still committed to reunification, hints at the early stages of consideration of abandoning reunification as a policy.

Committing to the policy reversal will fundamentally alter Asia's geopolitical landscape and reshape bilateral ties, and already appears to be bringing the threat of conflict closer.

Yet should North Korea's policy shift solidify, abandoning reunificatio“theoretically opens the way to diplomatic relations, mutual recognition, and even the establishment of embassies” between the two Koreas.

Pyongyang, Seoul, and outside powers could transform the decision to abandon reunification from a crisis into an opportunity – provided collaboration, a commitment to diplomatic resolution, and an avoidance of escalation are recognized as a collective responsibility.

This article was produced by
Economy for All , a project of the Independent Media Institute, which provided it to Asia Times.

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