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Chris La - Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Avoid the Biotech and Solar Sector
When The Federal Reserve dismissed the market's expectations for cutting rates next month, it did not hurt the S&P 500 (SPY). The index closed at record highs last week. However, the highly indebted solar energy and the money-losing emerging biotechnology sector will underperform. High interest rates tighten credit conditions.
Sunpower (SPWR), Enphase (ENPH), and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) are among the solar energy stocks at risk of under-performing. Although Enphase rallied by nearly 30% last week, the reversal depended largely on hopes of demand improving. CEO Badri Kothandaraman said that Europe has already shown early signs of a recovery. In particular, non-California states will bounce back quickly.
In the fourth quarter, Enphase reported a net income of only $21 million. This is 15 cents a share. Last year, it reported $154 million ($1.06 a share) in net income.
Beware of ENPH stock falling from here. The company has a $16.7 billion market capitalization of $300 million in quarterly revenue. Markets are not pricing in the risks of severe completion ahead.
In the biotech sector, Moderna's (MRNA) continued downtrend a macro warning for biotech investors. Last week, its Metagenomi IPO failed to excite investors. This is a red flag. The $94 million IPO lost 31% on Feb. 9. Metagenomi Technologies develops curative therapies using proprietary, metagenomics-derived, genome editing tools.
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