Collapse of Assad regime leads to complicated dynamic between new Syrian administration, Russia
(MENAFN) The collapse of the Assad Regime in Syria has led to a complicated dynamic between the new Syrian administration and Russia. Both sides are working to define a future strategic partnership based on mutual benefit. The first visit of a Russian delegation to Syria after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime marked the beginning of this process, especially as international and regional attention turned toward Syria’s Political transition. During this period, the commander of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed Al-Shara, hosted the Russian delegation in Damascus, which included Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Alexander Lverantiev, the Russian president’s special envoy. Experts suggest that the future of Syria-Russia relations will not be determined solely by their historical ties or political desires but by Syria's geopolitical positioning within regional and international power dynamics. Syria's location and the overlapping interests of various powers make its geopolitical identity complex, with Syria aiming to maintain its independence and avoid favoring any one bloc—whether it be Russia, the West, or others.
The new Syrian administration will seek to strengthen its position as an autonomous state capable of balancing competing interests, including those of Russia and the West, while avoiding absolute alignment with Moscow and Tehran. At the same time, Syria is unlikely to sever ties with Russia, a key member of the UN Security Council, but its relationship with Moscow will depend on the alternatives the West offers Damascus. Several key issues will influence the future of Syria-Russia relations, including:
1.The Military File: This is central to shaping their relationship, particularly regarding the future of military bases and military support. Damascus is wary of Russian bases, such as those in Tartus and Hmeimim, due to their association with the Assad regime and the displacement of many Syrians. These bases are also close to areas sympathetic to the Assad regime, raising concerns about potential foreign interference. Additionally, the EU demands the removal of Russian bases to lift sanctions on Syria, creating a balancing act for Damascus between maintaining its survival and pursuing the lifting of sanctions.
2.Military Support and Armament: The Syrian army's ability to rebuild is crucial, especially after Israeli raids decimated much of its military equipment. Historically, Syria has depended on Russian weapons and expertise, and changing its armament strategy would alter its military identity. However, Damascus realizes that Western countries will not supply arms without a peace deal with Israel. Turkey may emerge as a potential alternative source of weaponry, which could lead Syria to shift away from Russian arms. Such a move would undermine Russia’s influence in Syria, further complicating the relationship between the two countries.
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