Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership: Implications For South Caucasus

(MENAFN- AzerNews) Akbar Novruz Read more

On January 17, Russia and Iran are poised to sign a 47-article comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, covering many areas of cooperation. The timing of this event, just days before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, adds to its geopolitical significance.

The agreement raises critical questions for the South Caucasus region. How will this Russia-Iran rapprochement influence the North-South and Zangazur transport corridors? What will it mean for Azerbaijan and its strategic ambitions?

Azernews spoke with renowned experts to explore the matter.

Sadreddin Soltan , Chairman of the Middle East Studies Center, emphasized the historical context of the Russia-Iran relationship:

"The Russian-Iranian rapprochement is not a new dynamic for the region. They have always been partners but not strategic allies. The signing of this agreement would formalize their alliance, potentially affecting the South Caucasus in various ways. This alliance, of course, may have certain effects on the South Caucasus. Suppose the parties agree to pursue the same goals and activities in their foreign policy courses. In that case, their relations with the region's countries will also be formed accordingly. For example, if Russia stops gas exports to Armenia, Iran should stop in parallel. Or whatever position Iran takes in relation to Azerbaijan, Russia should also take that position. In this case, certain contradictions may arise in the agreement on Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation. Therefore, it can be emphasized that this strategic-comprehensive agreement is more about cooperation between Iran and Russia with each other and expanding relations."

Soltan highlighted that the agreement could focus on military cooperation, atomic technology, and transport infrastructure.

"Because both countries have enough problems in the international arena. They are especially subject to various sanctions from the West, Japan, and South Korea. Both want to increase their weapons and ammunition capabilities. Mainly, Russia needs military equipment, ammunition, rockets and also manpower to continue the war in Ukraine. Iran is also looking for new manufacturers to strengthen its air defense system and access more modern weapons and technologies. In this case, Russia will help Iran in the development of military-industrial complex technology. Russia and Iran are also looking for cooperation in atomic and nuclear technology. Currently, Russian companies are carrying out the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. In addition, it was possible for Iranian students to study in Russia in the field of the atomic industry. However, the student exchange program between the two sides was later officially suspended by Moscow due to US sanctions. It is possible that in the new agreement, discussions on cooperation in this area will be held again, in a broader area. Cooperation in the economic, military, social, cultural and energy fields may be reflected in the known agreement. Also, the issue of organizing transport infrastructure may be reflected here, which has been on the list of unresolved problems for a long time. The issue of building the Rasht-Astara railway line has been going on for a long time. Russia has invested a lot in this. That line passes through the territory of Azerbaijan and goes to Russia. Or Russia and Iran want to merge the electricity grid with Azerbaijan into a single space. This may also be reflected in the agenda. Iran previously had a separate position on the Zangezur road issue. Russia also began to create artificial obstacles in support of Iran's protests. Russia and Iran may also draw up a corresponding article in the agreement to block the presence and expansion of the West in the South Caucasus.”

Hasan Oktay, Chairman of KAFKASSAM, linked the partnership to broader geopolitical shifts, including the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria:

“When Bashar Assad left Syria on December 8, this new process caused Russia and Iran to lose in the region. Putin had been preparing to sign this document with Iran for a few years in order to turn Trump's election into an opportunity and strengthen his hand against him. It seems that Iran and Russia acting together will come to our land as a regional alliance. When the Soviets collapsed in 1991, the Turks suffered the most, Russia occupied Azerbaijani lands through Armenia, and Iran provided great support to Armenia. On December 8, 2024, the collapse of the Bashar regime, which was a Soviet product, caused Iran and Russia to try to put pressure on the Turkic world in the South Caucasus through Azerbaijan. The way to postpone these pressures is to sign the Türkiye Azerbaijan Armenia Tripartite Peace Treaty urgently.”

Russian political scientist Vitaliy Arkov , founder of PolitRUS, provided a strategic perspective on the agreement's significance:

"This comprehensive partnership is a more substantial document than the U.S.-Armenia partnership charter signed recently. The document in question has been in the works for a long time and was initially planned to be signed in the fall of 2024, but then, by mutual decision, the visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Moscow was postponed to early 2025, and the agreement itself, according to many sources, was expanded to take into account new world realities. The comprehensive agreement on strategic partnership between Russia and Iran is a much more important document than the partnership charter signed the day before in Washington between the United States and Armenia. In addition, it is an agreement between two great and largely equal powers, while Armenia has essentially voluntarily become a US neo-colony in the South Caucasus. Earlier, in 2021, Ukraine was similarly deprived of its independence. Against the backdrop of leaks from the entourage of newly elected US President Donald Trump about discussing the possibility of launching missile strikes on Iran - allegedly with the aim of preventing it from developing nuclear weapons - the signing of this agreement with Russia can be regarded both as a preventive measure and as an integral part of the general reformatting of the world order, where the United States has lost its hegemony and is unlikely to restore it in its previous format."

Arkov stressed that the agreement would bolster the "3+3" regional cooperation platform, including initiatives like the North-South International Transport Corridor (ITC).

"As for the South Caucasus, strengthening the partnership between Russia and Iran is obviously beneficial to the entire region and the "3+3" platform. The details worked out in the draft agreement in terms of economic and transport-logistics partnership also take into account the interests of the countries of the region. This gives additional impetus to the projects already being implemented (including the North-South ITC) and lays the foundation for new promising ideas.”

Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based political analyst, provided a detailed perspective on the Russia-Iran partnership:

"Russia and Iran already have close relations, so the planned signing of their updated strategic partnership pact doesn't represent a rapprochement, but a comprehensive intensification of their relations. It's important to mention though that the details haven't yet been confirmed, so discussions about the content are purely speculative for now. Nevertheless, generally speaking, it's expected that they'll strengthen economic, energy, industrial, logistical, and military-technical ties, among others.

While some have hyped it up as a game-changer, it's unlikely to have a major regional impact since Russia has repeatedly reaffirmed that its relations with Iran - like with all other countries - aren't aimed against any third party.

Moreover, Russia sat back and let Israel destroy the Iranian-led “Resistance Axis” over the past 15 months without so much as lifting a finger to try to save them, which discredits all speculation that its updated strategic partnership pact is meant to threaten Israel. Iranian President Pezeshkian also told NBC News in his latest interview that he hopes to improve ties with the US and denied wanting to build nuclear weapons.

Considering this, the consequences of their pact on third parties are expected to be minimal. If their trade, energy, investment, and logistical ties strengthen, then Iran might become an important conduit for trans-regional trade like it aspires to become through the North-South Transport Corridor.

That could lead to more trade with Azerbaijan and possibly help thaw their sometimes tense relations while rebuilding mutual trust, but it's too early to confidently predict whether these parts of the updated Russian-Iranian strategic partnership pact will develop as presumably intended, let alone their timeframe.

In that event, Iran might reduce its opposition - sometimes formal, other times informal - to the Zangezur Corridor. Even if it doesn't, however, nobody should expect that Russia would intervene to support Iran in the far-fetched scenario that it goes to war to stop this project seeing as how the ninth clause of the Moscow-mediated November 2020 clearly calls for its creation, and there's no credible reason to believe that Putin changed his mind about its importance."

MENAFN16012025000195011045ID1109099102