No Assurances For Taiwan Under Trump 2.0


(MENAFN- Asia Times) The incoming trump 2.0 administration's nomination of China hawks such as Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz and Elbridge Colby for senior leadership positions would seemingly bode well for Taiwan.

Sydney Morning Herald
correspondent Lisa Visentin is among those who
conclude
that“Trump has sent an early message to Beijing that Washington is unlikely to abandon Taiwan.” A recent
Taipei Times
editorial
exulted
that the composition of Trump's proposed leadership team“indicates that the US would continue its robust support for Taiwan.”

Alas, the reality is more complicated. Taiwan is already expecting rough weather from Washington on two fronts.

The first is a demand that Taiwan must raise its defense spending from its current level of 2.5% of GDP. Trump said the figure should be 10%. Lest we dismiss that as casual Trumpian hyperbole, Colby, the newly appointed undersecretary of defense for policy, has said the same thing.

The second anticipated tsunami is a revived US-China trade war , which would indirectly harm Taiwan among other US friends by decreasing China's earnings from the US market, thereby reducing China's ability to purchase the exports of other Asia-Pacific countries.

But there's more. Despite the presence of China hawks in the Oval Office, Trump 2.0 is more likely than any US government since the Korean War to discontinue US support for an autonomous Taiwan.

The core of current US support for Taiwan dates back to 1950. Chinese Communist Party armies under the command of Mao Zedong had captured mainland China in 1949, forcing Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of China government and remaining troops to relocate to Taiwan.

Washington had lost confidence in Chiang and Beijing was planning to finish the Chinese Civil War by attempting to conquer Taiwan in the fall of 1950. The outbreak of the Korean War in June of that year, however, convinced US President Harry Truman to position the US Navy to prevent PRC forces from attempting to cross the Taiwan Strait. Thereafter, Taiwan became a US protectorate.

Fast forward to the present, previously reliable US support suddenly looks uncertain for several reasons.

First, Trump does not accept the bipartisan internationalist approach that has dominated postwar US foreign policy-making.
Allowing Taiwan to choose its own international political destiny has long been part of US grand strategy.

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Asia Times

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