What Game Theory Predicts Trump Will And Won't Do

11/19/2024 5:06:30 AM

(MENAFN- Asia Times) Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed through.

There are several dramatic policy changes that the president-elect has threatened to make once he takes office.

For some , one of the most serious foreign policy concerns is the way the trump administration might go about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump stated he could stop the war in a day . If the end result of any negotiation or peace deal is seen by Vladimir Putin as a victory, other countries on Russia's borders are worried it could lead to plans for further military aggression.

Similarly, if Trump abandons the US's historic support for the self-governing island of Taiwan, it could prompt China into an attack . Beijing sees the island as a breakaway province and wants it to become part of China. But historically, US support of Taiwan has been a factor in China holding back.

Xi Jinping wants to cement his legacy as the leader who unified China, something which Mao Zedong failed to do after the civil war. The Chinese president has ratcheted up the pressure on Taiwan in recent years, and there are significant signs that he wants to go further.

But neither Xi nor Putin can guarantee that Trump will do what he has previously suggested he might. Here's why.

A lesson from game theory , the mathematical study of cooperation and competition, might be relevant here – in particular, the scenario referred to as the “chicken game” or the“hawk-dove” game, which provides a model of conflict between two actors.

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