China's New Hypersonic Weapon Could Black Out US, Taiwan

It says such weapons, compact enough to fit in a suitcase or mount on drones and trucks, could disable crucial infrastructure components, leading to protracted power outages. A single NNEMP attack on fewer than 100 transformer substations could trigger nationwide cascading blackouts and impact military bases, which depend on the civilian grid for 99% of their power.

The report mentions that countries like Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are actively developing or possess NNEMP capabilities, with some nations potentially equipped to launch attacks from drones or freighters.

It says the ease of NNEMP acquisition, and the minimal manpower required for deployment, elevate the risk of these weapons being used against US infrastructure, potentially crippling both civil and military systems in an unprecedented“blackout warfare” scenario​.

China's use of NNEMP weapons may eliminate a possible dilemma regarding the use of EMP weapons. Tin Pak mentions in a July 2024 article for the Henry M Jackson School of International Studies that China considers high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons an extension of cyber warfare.

This can potentially lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, which produce significant HEMP effects. Using a NNEMP weapon could achieve the same effects while skirting the threat of nuclear escalation.

James Anderson mentions in a March 2024 Proceedings article that China may opt to perform an NNEMP“shock and awe” attack on Taiwan to paralyze the self-governing island's communication networks, dealing a sudden devastating psychological blow to morale and potentially pressing Taiwan's leaders into capitulation.

However, in April 2023, Asia Times reported that Taiwan has fortified a critical missile command center against potential HEMP attacks amid rising concerns of a possible Chinese invasion.

The Taiwanese Navy has reinforced the Gangping Camp in New Taipei City's Sanzhi District, a critical facility for the Haifeng Brigade's anti-ship missile unit, to withstand HEMP attacks.

The facility features a shielding room designed to US military nuclear protection standards, capable of reducing electromagnetic wave force from 50,000 volts per meter to just 5 volts per meter.

As with Taiwan, the US military faces a significant threat from an EMP attack. In a February 2023 Proceedings article , Joshua Owen mentions that the US military, heavily reliant on the civilian electric grid, would face significant operational challenges in the aftermath of such an event.

Owen says communication systems, vehicles, and other critical equipment could be rendered inoperable, severely hampering command and control capabilities. He highlights, in particular, the vulnerability of military bases, which lack sufficient hardening against EMPs, and the potential for a long-term blackout to disrupt logistics, food and water supplies.

He stresses that the lack of preparedness and the potential for human desperation and chaos underscores the imperative for proactive measures against such attacks.

Further, Ronald McKinney Jr discusses in a February 2024 article for Wild Blue Yonder the severe threat posed by EMP attacks on US critical infrastructure.

McKinney Jr says the US power grid, telecommunications, water supply and other essential services are particularly vulnerable. He notes that a significant EMP event could incapacitate these systems for months, leading to widespread chaos and economic damage.

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He underscores the interconnected nature of US infrastructure, where the failure of a few key components could trigger a cascading effect, causing broader systemic collapse.

He also points out that the potential for such an attack is not limited to nuclear detonations; sophisticated cyber-attacks or NNEMP weapons could achieve similar disruptive outcomes.

However, Jeff Schogol mentions in a September 2022 article for Task & Purpose that an adversary is unlikely to use an EMP attack alone due to the high risk of US nuclear retaliation. He says an EMP attack would likely be part of a broader nuclear assault, given the severe escalation risks.

Schogol highlights the limitations of an EMP attack, noting that the damage to electronic devices would vary based on several factors, including their orientation and protection. He points out that while an EMP could cause significant power outages, the extent of long-term damage is uncertain.

He also adds that the US military, including North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and US Northern Command (USNORTHCOM), conducts regular exercises to ensure they can maintain command and control in the event of an EMP attack, with facilities like Cheyenne Mountain Space Force Station designed to withstand such events.

Overall, Schogol says that while the threat of an EMP attack is real and serious, its effectiveness and the likelihood of its use in isolation are questionable.

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