When West's Weakness Eggs On Bellicose Putin, Kyiv Must Respond

Already, in December 2021, US President Joe Biden had warned Putin of strong sanctions against Russia and military aid for Ukraine if the Russians invaded.
Following the full-scale invasion, the US enacted a new wave of sanctions to damage the Russian economy.
The Europeans were split on how far they wanted to enact sanctions due to also wanting to protect their economies.

Even in the initial days of the war, US intelligence thought Kyiv would fall quickly to Russia. But Ukraine did not fall. It fought back, winning the initial battle for Kyiv. By standing strong, Ukraine showed the world it was up for the fight and could win on the battlefield. Thereby it unlocked from the West substantial military support to continue its fight, such as gifts of long-range missiles and F-16s.

What did not change was that the West was scared to test Russia's supposed red lines. The Biden Administration thought its sanctions would have an impact and would force Russia to stop the war. At the same time, it began giving Ukrainians weapons but not everything that was needed.
The West ensured Ukraine would have to fight back with its hands tied.

This trend of Biden's administration serving as escalation managers continued in 2024. Putin knew the West would not go all in on the fight and that knowledge gave him additional motivation to further his effort to conquer Ukraine. Russia resorted to threats of nuclear war to get the West to stop supporting Ukraine, stop giving them additional capacity to fight.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken previously had declared that any attempt by Ukraine to reclaim Crimea would cross a red line for Putin. According to Michael McCaul, head of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, Biden and his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also believe that Russia might use nuclear weapons if the US provides Ukraine with“too many” weapons. This self-restraint by the US would eventually force the Ukrainians to become more self-reliant.

Ukraine understood that the West was scared to spook Russia and would very slowly test the waters by giving more advanced weapons over time. Ukraine's bombing of Moscow with drone strikes was aimed at unsettling the Russian elites while demonstrating that even targeting Moscow does not cross Russia's supposed red lines. Russia spoke of taking harsh retaliatory measures, but there has been no nuclear provocation in terms of a nuclear response

In July 2022, Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev, who currently holds the position of deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, warned that an attack on Crimea would unleash“Judgement Day.” Nevertheless, Ukrainian intelligence in October 2022 proceeded to bomb the Crimean bridge, a symbolic centerpiece and crown jewel of Putin's neo-imperial ambitions. Contrary to the doomsday predictions, the anticipated catastrophe never occurred, thereby further undermining Russia's threats and red lines.

When British Storm Shadow cruise missiles were delivered to Ukraine, Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, issued a warning to Britain, indicating that if these missiles were deployed to strike targets in Crimea or mainland Russia, Britain would be viewed as fully participating in the ongoing war. Nonetheless, Ukraine proceeded to bomb a significant bridge connecting Russian-held Crimea with Kherson. An eerie silence from Moscow followed.

As Ukraine ramped up its attacks against Russia, Putin's nuclear saber rattling only increased. China decisively deflated Putin's main tactic of enforcing red lines. By July 2023, it's alleged, even Chinese President Xi Jinping had cautioned Putin against using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. This pushback weakened the impact of Russia's so-called red lines and Putin's repeated nuclear threats. As a result, the Western alliance grew more confident, easing concerns and leading to the release of increased aid for Ukraine.

Ukraine's defense intelligence collaborated with groups such as the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion to orchestrate cross-border incursions into Russia's Belgorod region. Ukraine ironically denied any involvement in the incursions, mirroring Russia's denial regarding its militants' activities in Ukraine since 2014.

This was yet another step in helping to chip away at Russia's red lines. But it still did not ease the concerns of the West. Leaked documents revealed that the CIA had to intervene to prevent General Kyrylo Budanov from issuing an order to attack Moscow on the anniversary of the invasion in February 2023.

The most audacious movement by Ukraine would come on August 6, 2024 as Ukraine conducted a surprise offensive into Russia's Kursk region. Ukraine had learned from its 2023 mistakes of consulting with Western partners, deploying newly formed brigades and telegraphing its plans with videos and public comments.”

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Even Ukraine's commanders and troops didn't know about the 2024 campaign until the final day; some commanders even thought the offensive was meant to serve as a bluff. General Oleksandr Syrskyi knows that Ukraine can't go head-to-head with Russia and must fight smart, using whatever advantage it can find.

The offensive carries significant risks. Russia has made substantial progress and is now within a few kilometers of the critical logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Ukraine had hoped to force Russia to divert its best-trained forces from the Donetsk offensive to defend Kursk, but there have been no clear signs that Russia is taking such actions.

If Pokrovsk falls, it will greatly simplify Russia's efforts to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast. Military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov said that if Ukraine loses Pokrovsk,“the entire front line will crumble.”

However, this was the kind of gamble Ukraine needed to shift the narrative of the war. Russia had positioned Ukraine in a war of attrition, where the Russians could slowly grind down the Ukrainian forces, willing to sacrifice vast numbers of Russian soldiers to capture Ukrainian towns, while Ukraine sought to preserve the lives of its troops. Despite Ukraine's repeated pleas to the West for more support to target Russia, these requests often fell on deaf ears.

The incursion into Kursk changed the narrative, giving Ukraine the initiative and demonstrating to both the Ukrainian people and the West that it can still seize the momentum and has the potential to win the war. Following the launch of the Kursk offensive, a poll from YouGov showed for the first time since November 2023 that the majority of Americans believed Ukraine was winning the war.

This piece, published with permission, is an excerpt from a report presented by the author at the UK Parliament on October 9, on behalf of the Henry Jackson Society, titled“Military Lessons for NATO from the Russia-Ukraine War: Preparing for the Wars of Tomorrow.” The full original report includes extensive footnoting to show the sourcing of facts and quotations.

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