US Intel Leak Shakes Israel's Plan To Hit Iran, And More

The report carefully identifies the types of cruise missiles Israel was preparing, namely a system called ROCKS (which may be Israel's long range Crystal Maze or Crystal Maze II air launched cruise missile) and Golden Dawn, another type of cruise missile that could be a derivative of the Sparrow series that originated as a target system emulating Iranian long range missiles.

There is more. The lesser-classified document (secret level) discusses Israel's Jericho II medium range ballistic missiles, which are believed to be a critical part of Israel's nuclear deterrent.

Jericho II is solid-fueled and can be silo based or transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle based. The documentary context shows that the US accepts Israel's possession of nuclear weapons, although the US has never officially acknowledged that before.

The relevant document reveals that Israel may have dispersed the Jericho missiles to prevent them from being targeted by Iran. It also says that the US has not detected any preparations by Israel of its Jericho II missiles and concludes that any nuclear strike by Israel is unlikely.

There can be no doubt that the leak of geospatial-origin intelligence has brought significant harm to Israel. It is also likely that much more sensitive intelligence was leaked to the Iranians, information that Iran may be protecting from public disclosure. Some releases on the Spectator channel admit as much.

Why would the Iranian government (either via Spectator or by giving permission to Spectator) leak ANY of the information?

Some speculate it was to convince Israel that the retaliation plan was known to Iran – thus deterring Israel from an attack that the Iranian government REALLY didn't want to face. Second, perhaps, it was to warn (boast?) that Iran was being supplied with secret information by the United States, making Israel worry about what else had been compromised.

Consider this.

The Iranian leak was published on October 18. On the 19th, an alleged Hezbollah-origin drone attacked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's private home in Caesarea near the coast. Accurately targeting Netanyahu's home required“scene matching,” as any drone from Lebanon, Syria or Iraq likely would have been outside of radio control communication. Scene matching would require significant intelligence preparation.

Was there confidence Netanyahu would be at home during the attack? Or confidence that he wouldn't be? Striking the house knowing he wasn't there would be another way of telling Israel what Iran knows without facing the retaliation that would surely follow an actual assassination. Were US assets complicit? In other words was the leak a law violation or was it an act by the administration or some in the administration with political motives? No one can say, yet.

All of this is likely to cause a significant reassessment in Israel. At minimum, the Israelis will have the opinion that US intelligence is unreliable and penetrated. Beyond that, some will understand the US to be overtly hostile and acting against Israel. (After the drone attack, the prime minister received phone calls from foreign heads of state and from former President Trump and US House Speaker Mike Johnson. Neither President Biden nor Vice President Harris called .)

In the real world this is a very sad development. Israel has some of the best human intelligence (HUMINT) in the world and has significant access to Iran's nuclear programs. Israel has, on many occasions, warned friendly (and not so friendly) countries about threats, including against foreign leaders, that the Mossad and other intelligence centers in Israel have detected. Leaks like this put a severe chill on intelligence cooperation and directly harm the US.

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The US has apparently launched an investigation, according to House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson. Documents of this type are often sent via secure internet to security-cleared personnel. There could be hundreds, perhaps even more, with access. It might be possible to review time stamps on those who accessed or copied the documents, which would potentially help narrow the search. It may also be possible to track documents sent outside the US using the National Security Agency's massive capabilities. Much depends on whether the investigation undertaken is serious.

One suggestion being floated is that maybe the documents were hacked . But such sensitive information is not only carried on classified channels; it is also encrypted, making hacking less likely to yield useful results. For the record, there are no public reports of any hacks of US security information.

It isn't clear what Israel will do. It would be reckless to retaliate, now that at least some of Israel's plans and preparations have been leaked – which was the whole idea. Israel had already reportedly agreed with the US not to strike Iran's oil or nuclear facilities. Will that agreement hold now, or will Israel consider the agreement void?

Beyond that, Israel has to be concerned that its other operations – against Iranian proxies from the Red Sea to Gaza, Lebanon and Syria – also are at risk because of US intelligence leaks.

Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Middle East subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.

This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. It is republished with permission.

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