(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Elnur Enveroglu
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The Summit of the CIS Heads of State attended by the heads of
state and government of Azerbaijan and Armenia was remarkable by a
number of important moments. Although there was no one-on-one
meeting between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham
Aliyev about the peace process, the statements of the head of the
Armenian government about 'updates to the geopolitics' of the
region revealed a new topic.
Obviously, the borders of Armenia have been controlled by Russia
since 1992. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Yerevan
administration, whose country's border security was provided by
Russia, has already announced for the first time that it has
decided to take this authority back from Moscow. Prime Minister
Nikol Pashinyan agreed to this while talking to Russian President
Vladimir Putin, but some nuances related to border control
seriously affected its staunch ally Tehran.
While it is stated in the agreement that the Russian military
will continue to control the borders of Armenia with Turkiye
together with the Armenian border guards, it is emphasised that the
borders with Iran will be controlled only by the Armenians
themselves. That is, according to the negotiations, the Russian
military will no longer function in the abovementioned segment.
Tehran, as usual, takes heed, and its panicking reaction forces
it to interpret the matter in different ways. The Iranian side
believes that Armenia will withdraw Russian troops from the border
and replace them with NATO forces, which in itself is perceived as
a threat to Iran.
It should be recalled that some time ago, official Tehran
expressed its harsh protest to the negotiations between Azerbaijan
and Armenia regarding the opening of the Zangazur Corridor. Even
Iran, reacting sharply to Azerbaijan's demands to Armenia regarding
the opening of the Zangazur Corridor, said, "Armenia's borders are
our red line."
What is Iran thinking now?
Yerevan actually, stands on the point that Tehran is mostly
concerned about, and these decisions it takes from the West do not
satisfy its southern neighbour at all.
Some experts even believe that January 2025 may be the inception
of a new era in Armenian-Iranian relations. This can also be
applied to Russia if we take into account that today Armenia is
trying to increase the Western military contingent in its
territory, moreover, it aims to increase the mandate of the
European Mission, which displeases the official Kremlin.
However, Russia seems confident that it can settle this issue
with Armenia finding a common language. Nikol Pashinyan, who met
with President Putin at the summit of CIS heads of state, openly
spoke about the growing trade turnover in the last and current
years. This indicates that the parties are able to take more
pragmatic steps behind intense political motives when there is a
need.
Currently, Russia does not see any need to maintain its military
contingent in the South Caucasus, moreover, instead of speaking
harshly to the whimsical Armenia, it treats it with some affection.
Because Russia prefers not to lose an ally in the South Caucasus,
but rather to satisfy the parties in order to manage the ongoing
tense situation on the western borders. Moscow knows that Yerevan
does not implement the border decision on its own; the West,
standing behind it, is mobilising both Yerevan and Kyiv against
Russia with all its might. Therefore, Russia still turns a blind
eye to the almost intolerable whims of Armenia.
What will be the fate of Iran's red line then?
Most likely, if Armenia settles only with the West, Iran's
displeasure will remain on its own. In recent days, Iran's attitude
towards the current processes has also been strongly condemned by
pro-Armenian Iranian politicians. Because the border belongs to
Armenia, and the decision is made by the Yerevan administration -
and Iran's interference in this is no longer appropriate. At the
last point, it seems inevitable that Iran should continue its
relations with Azerbaijan at a higher level – even way better than
ever. As for the opening of the Zangazur Corridor, a more adequate
solution to this issue depends on Armenia's logical approach to
matters in negotiations. In any case, the near future will make it
more clear...
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