Israel Thwarted Iran Missile Attack But Defense Isn't Enough

The US reports that two of its AEGIS warships USS Bulkeley (DDG-84) and the USS Cole (DDG-67) in the Mediterranean Sea launched 12 interceptor missiles in support of Israel.
It is likely these were SM-3 1B interceptors that can hit incoming missiles outside of the earth's atmosphere (exo-atmospheric). The Pentagon says the US interceptors destroyed their targets.

Iran launched a mix of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), including Emad, a liquid-fueled missile, Ghadr-110 (first stage liquid-fueled, second solid fuel), Fatah 1 (solid fuel) and Khaybar Shekan (solid fuel). Liquid-fueled missiles take time to fuel, and the process often can be observed by satellites or other surveillance systems. Solid-fuel rockets are essentially ready to go.

Iran claimed that its missiles, including its newest ones (Fatah-1 and Khaybar Shekan) are hypersonic and have maneuvering
warheads, making it difficult for air defenses to defeat them.
However, Israel's Army (IDF) reported that none of the missiles were actually hypersonic, nor did they have maneuvering warheads.

Israel's air defense system consists of four main elements. These are

• Iron Dome, designed for short-range intercepts;
• David's Sling for medium range threats and capable against heavier missiles;
• Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 with exo-atmospheric capabilities designed to destroy ballistic missiles before they arrive on Israel's territory
• C-dome, a version of Iron Dome operating from Sa'ar 6 -class corvettes at sea, the first of which became operational in 2023.

Arrow 2 has the following sophisticated capabilities:

• high and low altitude interception capabilities;
• hypersonic velocity;
• powerful and unique fragmentation warhead;
• large defended area;
• high lethality against all types of tactical ballistic missiles and warheads;
• high maneuverability utilizing both advanced aerodynamics and thrust vector control (TVC);
• state-of-the-art end-game sensors;
• advanced navigation, guidance and control;
• two solid propulsion stages: booster and sustainer; and
• overall very short reaction time.

Arrow 3 goes beyond Arrow 2. It has a much greater maneuvering capability (its kill vehicle can switch directions dramatically, allowing it to pivot to see approaching satellites) and greater range than Arrow 2. Unlike Arrow 2, Arrow 3 uses“hit to kill” technology, meaning that its warhead smashes into the threat and destroys it kinetically. Arrow 2 by contrast uses a blast fragmentation warhead and is less accurate (four meters, but sufficient to destroy an incoming threat).

Arrow 3 also is hypersonic. Arrow 3 can be used as an anti-satellite weapon – of critical importance as the Middle East slides into a future nuclear confrontation. Arrow 3 can be silo-launched, making it more secure in a nuclear scenario.

In 2019, Arrow 3 missiles were tested in Kodiak, Alaska. The Israeli Ballistic Missile Organization and the US Missile Defense Agency cooperated in arranging this test to see if the Arrow 3 performed effectively in the exo-atmosphere (and if it did better than the interceptors of the US Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System). Arrow 3 destroyed all its targets in the test.

Along with the two AEGIS destroyers, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 were the primary defense systems Israel used both in April and in October against Iranian IRBMs.

Israel's David's Sling supported Arrow by going after missiles that got past the main defensive net. David's Sling does not operate in the exo-atmosphere, like Arrow, but it is designed to take down tactical ballistic missiles. This system was built to replace the old HAWK and more modern Patriot US-origin air defense systems.

Arrow is a joint Israeli (Rafael) and US (RTX) air defense capability. Its interceptor is described as“a solid-fuel rocket motor booster , followed by an asymmetrical kill vehicle with advanced steering for super-maneuverability during the kill stage. A three-pulse motor provides additional acceleration and maneuverability during the terminal phase.” The system can distinguish between real warheads and decoys.

Some of the available video taken in Israel shows low-altitude intercepts. These are evidence of David's Sling or Patriot.

The Israeli Iron Dome system played no known role other than in the north against Hezbollah rockets. Its Tamir interceptor is rather small and is not optimal against heavier missile threats.

Israel's air defense complex is optimized so that missiles that are unlikely to hit a significant target are given lower priority for intercept than those trying to knock out a strategic target or population center. Israel probably does not have enough interceptors to knock out all incoming threats.

The primary problem was not effectiveness but saturation.

As yet there is no hard statistical information available for the performance of either of the two Arrow systems or David's Sling.
It is true that two air bases were hit but neither was put out of action and Israel says no aircraft were damaged or destroyed. These were subject to a high volume of attempted strikes aimed at overwhelming Israel's air defense assets.

Israel's air defenses probably are the best in the world, but Israel cannot rely solely on air defenses to protect the nation.
It must go after the enemy's launch sites and missile manufacturing capabilities and Iran's nuclear weapons assets.
There is no alternative as Israel faces a nation, Iran, that seeks its annihilation.

A totally passive defense is, at the end of the day, insufficient – and miracles, even in Israel, are subject to rationing.

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Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Near East subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.

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