Despite Torrential Downpour, Eight States Remain Rain Deficient Delhi Records All-Time High Rainy Days In August

(MENAFN- Live Mint) New Delhi: Despite the neutral condition of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bringing torrential rains across the country, eight states, including the major rice-growing regions of Bihar and Punjab, remain rain deficient.

Additionally, the national capital recorded 26 rainy days in August, an all-time high since 2011.

Punjab, one of India's top basmati rice growers, received 24% deficit rain at 275.6 mm in three months of the four-month (June-September) monsoon season and Bihar that grows non-basmati rice varieties remained 25% rain-deficit as it recorded 580.5 mm precipitation during the same period.

With 5% above normal and 9% and 4% lower than normal rain in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Kerala, rains the other major non-basmati producers, were in the 'normal' category at 966.2 mm, 723.9 mm, 1008.1 mm and 1559.5 mm, respectively.

IMD has five categories for rainfall-large excess, excess, normal, deficient and large deficient.

In the four-month monsoon season (June-September), the country has so far received 7% above normal precipitation at 742.1 mm.

Rice is one of the most important foodgrain crops in eastern India, accounting for about 49% of gross cropped area and 62% of the area under foodgrain crops. Punjab, plays a significant role with a contribution of over 10.5% of the country's rice production. Between June and August, east and northeast India received 13% lower than normal precipitation at 948.9 mm, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Despite inadequate rain in these regions, farmers cultivated the staple crop across 39.4 million hectares, 4.3% more than the corresponding period last year, according to latest data issued by the union agriculture ministry on 23 August. This is because of excess rain in other key regions like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Market players said that sowing of non-basmati paddy or rice varieties is at least 10-12% more this Kharif season while cultivation of basmati varieties, especially Pusa 1121 and 1509, is seen to have gone down.

“Though rain remains patchy in few leading rice growing states-Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Punjab-overall sowing in the country is higher than the previous year. The official data of sowing break-up is yet to be out, but sowing of basmati rice, especially Pusa 1121, in Punjab and MP (Madhya Pradesh) is estimated to have gone down around 15% and 20%, respectively as farmers diverted their crop areas to some extent to non-basmati varieties,” said Parth Agarwal, director of Raviraj Rice Industry, adding“this is due to not only insufficient rain but also poor market conditions amid higher MEP (minimum export price) making sales difficult for Indian basmati exporters.”

Limited exports of basmati 1509 and Pusa 1121 varieties have boosted local stocks, even before fresh harvest hits the market in September, worrying the farm community. Between November and August, basmati prices dropped by at least 20% due to excess stocks in hand of millers and higher freight rates globally weighing on international demand. Additionally, Pakistan, India's rival in the global basmati market, is selling at around $700 per tonne, putting Indian exports at a disadvantage.

Last October, the government lowered the MEP for basmati rice shipments to $950 per tonne from $1,200, fixed on 25 August last year to restrict 'illegal shipment of white non-basmati rice' whose shipment was banned in July last year.

According to the latest agriculture ministry estimates, this year is likely to see rice production at 136.7 million tonnes compared to last year's 135 million tonnes.

As far as rain in Delhi is concerned, it received precipitation throughout last month, except for the 3, 22, 26 and 31 August. For the first time since 2011, the met department has been keeping detailed rainfall records, the city recorded rainy days for 18 straight days in August. During last month, Delhi received 390.3 mm rainfall.

The previous record was 11 days, witnessed in September 2021, August 2012, and August 2013. Other significant streaks include nine-day spells in July 2016, August 2020, and September 2018, and eight-day spells in July 2013 and July 2015.

The country received 5th highest rainfall since 2001 at 287.1 mm, 15.3% surplus rain in August, with northwest India recording 23rd highest rainfall since 1901 and 2nd highest since 2001 at 253.9 mm, 30.1% above normal precipitation. This could be attributed to several favourable weather conditions keeping the Southwest monsoon which entered the country two days prior to the scheduled date on 30 May via the Kerala coast active for most days last month. August witnessed a total of six low-pressure systems, including one that intensified into a rare cyclone 'Asna' in the Arabian Sea on 30 August. Despite this, August was India's warmest since 1901 as the all-India average monthly minimum temperature rose to an all-time record of 24.29°C against the normal of 23.68°C, IMD said on Saturday during its monthly weather forecast for September.

September is seen continuing to receive above normal rain (>109% of the LPA or long period average), it said warning that the above normal monsoon rainfall in most parts of the country, including Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, may cause floods and landslides. However, rain in north Bihar, northeast UP, most parts of northeast India, extreme northwest India and many parts of south peninsular India are likely to be below normal.

The LPA of rainfall over the country in September based on data of 1971-2020 is about 167.9 mm.

La Niña phenomenon has, however, not yet formed. It is expected by Sept-end, but it won't have any effect on the current monsoon season as the summer monsoon may, by that time, be in its withdrawal phase, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said on Saturday.

La Niña, characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures, occurs every 3-5 years, occasionally in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns, which can result in floods, generally weakens during the northeast (winter) monsoon in October-December.

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