New Cold War Missile Race Kicks Into Higher Gear

US PAC-3 interceptor production hit 500 missiles a year in December 2023, with plans to increase output to 650 by 2027, Defense News reported in April 2024.

Stars and Stripes mentions that PAC-3 missiles, part of the Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, will be sourced from the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's (JASDF) inventory and transferred back to the US.

It notes that the arrangement is a way for Japan to indirectly support Ukraine's defense needs without inciting domestic opposition.

Stars and Stripes mentions that the agreement coincides with recent security talks in Tokyo between US and Japanese officials who emphasized the importance of increasing PAC-3 and advanced medium-range air-to-air missile production to meet growing demands.

As for production capabilities, Stars and Stripes says that Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) , licensed by US defense contractor Lockheed Martin , currently produces around 30 PAC-3 missiles annually and reputedly has the capacity to double this output.

Aside from its usual saber-rattling against South Korea, Japan and the US, North Korea often publicizes its advancements in missile technology as a sales pitch to potential customers such as Iran and Russia.

In January 2024, Asia Times noted that US sanctions and pressure have strengthened the partnership between North Korea and Iran, allowing them to support each other's missile programs despite global attention on their assistance to Russia's war on Ukraine.

North Korean technology transfers to Iran began during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. Those transfers declined when Iran sought commercial ties with South Korea after the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement.

However, cooperation resumed in 2020, with a confidential UN report noting that North Korea and Iran were collaborating on the development of long-range missiles, including the transfer of crucial parts.

Iran's missile program has connections to North Korea, with reports of Tehran purchasing missiles and propulsion systems from Pyongyang dating back to 2005. Additionally, Iran's Shahab-3 missile and space launch vehicles are believed to be based on or bear similarities to North Korean missiles.

Russia may find North Korea and Iran's advancements in missile technology appealing given its prodigious usage of cruise and ballistic missiles in Ukraine to hammer the latter's air defenses, infrastructure, industrial base and morale in a strategic bombing campaign.

In a May 2024 article for the New York Times, Josh Holder and Constant Méheut note that since April 2023, Ukraine's air defense has been increasingly unable to intercept Russian missiles, with interception rates plummeting from over 80% to less than 50%.

Holder and Méheut's analysis of Ukrainian military reports highlights a trend of growing missile barrages and advanced tactics from Russia, including the use of faster, more complex missiles and drones designed to overwhelm and confuse Ukrainian defenses.

They note that despite receiving Western aid, including three Patriot systems, Ukraine faces ammunition shortages and struggles to protect its infrastructure and civilians.

Russia has used North Korean missiles against Ukraine and may use Iranian missiles there soon. Reuters reported this month that Iran may send hundreds of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) to Russia. The report said that dozens of Russian military personnel are now being trained in Iran on the missile's use.

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Reuters says Russian defense ministry officials may have signed a contract with Iranian officials last December for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system. The report says that the move will allow Russia to use its missiles to hit targets deeper in Ukraine while using Iranian missiles against closer targets.

As for US-Japan plans to co-produce PAC-3 interceptors, Rachel Hoff says in a December 2015 American Action Forum (AAF) paper that missile technology collaboration between the two countries ensures the security of Japan and US troops stationed there and represents a cost-effective strategy for the US defense budget.

Hoff points out that the joint development of missile defense systems like the PAC-3 interceptor enables both nations to enhance their defensive capabilities against regional threats, particularly from North Korea and China.

She says that the US can allocate its defense resources more efficiently by sharing the financial burden of missile research, development and production.

However, Japan's pacifist orientation presents substantial internal barriers to ramping up defense production, potentially slowing down its capability to deliver tangible and meaningful results.

Asia Times noted in September 2023 that Japan's defense industry struggles with low profitability, aging technology, poor missile stockpiling practices and scant government support.

Supply chains also present challenges. As Reuters pointed out last month, it will take many years before MHI can increase its PAC-3 interceptor output, as production is hamstrung by the shortage of a critical component produced by US aerospace giant Boeing .

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