GBP/CHF Forecast Today 03/07: Strong Against Franc (Video)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex)

  • The British pound has rallied against the Swiss franc during the early hours on Tuesday, but it looks to me like we are trying to go much higher, perhaps reaching to the 1.15 level.
  • The 1.15 level, of course, is a large round psychologically significant figure, and I think it could cause a little bit of a reaction.

That being said, this is one of my favorite pairs going forward and I do like the idea of buying short-term pullbacks. Really, I think this is a situation where you are dipping and finding value hunters, but whether or not we find it at the 50-day EMA or the 1.13 level, which is just above the crucial 200-day EMA remains to be seen. It really doesn't matter to me though, because I am cognizant of the fact that we are in the midst of summer, and volatility is probably falling off of a cliff. So now, over the last couple of months, I have shifted more towards carry trading. That just simply means collecting swap at the end of every day. Over time, as long as the currency position doesn't go too far against you, you generally come out ahead.

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Interest Rate Payments

The British pound of course pays much more in the way of interest than the Swiss franc. So as long as that's going to be the case, I do think there's a natural proclivity for buyers to step in and pick advantage of short-term dips to pick up cheap British pounds as it were. I have no interest in owning the Swiss franc and if we do fall from here, I'll just wait to see some type of reaction as far as a balance is concerned that I can take advantage of and start going long yet again. If we can break above the 1.15 level, then it's possible we could go look into the 1.17 level given enough time, but that's probably something that will take several weeks to accomplish.

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