Australia's Naval Splurge All About Deterring China

It also mentions acquisition plans for 25 minor war vessels consisting of six Arafura class Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs), eight Evolved Cape class patrol boats (ECCPBs) and 11 ECCPBs for the Australian Border Force (ABF).

Fears of China's rising naval presence in the South Pacific likely drove Australia to embark on this massive naval expansion, providing a highly visible, pre-emptive presence against the potential establishment of Chinese bases in the region.

In February 2022, Asia Times noted China's efforts to establish a presence in Pacific Island countries including the Solomon Islands.

The Solomon Islands have a crucial geographical position in the South Pacific that connects Australia and the US to Asia through critical sea lanes.

However, the Solomon Islands and other small and remote Pacific nations face significant challenges including overpopulation, poverty and climate change that have hindered their development and progress.

The US, Australia and New Zealand, traditional partners of South Pacific states, prioritize promoting good governance practices. However, South Pacific states are more interested in receiving practical economic assistance, infrastructure development, and measures to address climate change.

China has several key concerns in the South Pacific, which include diplomatically isolating Taiwan, safeguarding the interests of its expatriate community in the region and protecting its fisheries and mining-related enterprises.

China has repeatedly denied any intentions of expansion or an overt military agenda. Nevertheless, its strategies of elite co-optation, coupled with its increasing economic and military power, have prompted security concerns among South Pacific nations and their traditional partners.

There is a worry among some critical analysts that China might be able to establish a military base in the South Pacific by using tactics such as trade, bribery, corruption and debt.

Tulagi Island, which has a deep-water harbor that is highly desirable to the military, was sought after by China Sam Group for leasing in 2019. However, the Solomon Islands government ultimately rejected the proposal.

Building such a facility would separate Australia and the US, leaving the country without the support of its primary ally and requiring it to protect its maritime interests alone.

Despite that setback, China continues to expand its footprint in the South Pacific, with Nauru being the latest regional state to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of China last month.

Nauru's past hints at its military value. During World War II, Japan built an airfield and substantially fortified the island as a link in its chain of defenses in the Central Pacific.

Cleo Paskal notes in an August 2023 Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) podcast that Nauru is trying to diversify its economy and has acknowledged that an international port would be helpful, with its location being a strategic transshipment point to other Pacific islands.

Paskal says that the China Harbor Engineering Company won the port bid and mentions suspicions that China may have been slow-walking the port project to coerce Nauru economically and not to compete with its port infrastructure project in the Solomon Island's capital of Honiara.

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Apart from checking China's potential expansion in its periphery, Australia's naval buildup may enable it to play a more significant role in a US-led coalition over a potential Taiwan conflict, although under certain constraints.

While Australia's naval buildup of 51 warships over the next few years may seem paltry to the People's Liberation Army – Navy (PLA-N), which, as of 2023, was the world's largest navy in terms of hull numbers with 370 ships and submarines, it is designed to fight as part of a larger coalition with the US and Japan.

Wu Su-Wei and Jonathan Chin note in a May 2021 Taipei Times article that Australia could provide logistical support to the US Navy in a conflict over Taiwan, with the RAN protecting sea lanes of communication, providing sealift and airlift capabilities, and engaging in combat under certain conditions.

Su-Wei and Chin say Australia would be obliged to send forces to aid the US as a US treaty ally. However, they argue that Australia would be unlikely to send ships in the Taiwan Strait and would more likely operate on the periphery of a conflict.

The writers say that since Australia lacks formal diplomatic and security ties with Taiwan, any Australian military action supporting the self-governing island would have to be done under the former's alliance with the US.

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