A Senkaku Islands Escalation Is China's Choice

These were warnings to Tokyo that it can do it again – with even more boats – anytime it wants. At some point – and in the not-so-distant future, when China decides the time is right – the Japanese defenders could be overwhelmed.

And at that point, Japan will have some hard choices to make. By itself, it will have a very hard time rolling back the Chinese. Japan is counting on American support.

They have said they would.

It is now well understood that Washington considers the Senkakus to fall under the
Japan-US Security Treaty . United States officials have made this clear repeatedly since the Obama administration.

The
Japan-US Security treaty
language says that the treaty and America's obligation to defend Japan apply to areas under Japan's“administrative control.”
That includes the Senkakus – which the US considers under Japanese administrative control – even if Washington takes no position on actual ownership.

Remember that, in the aforementioned Chinese strategy, flooding the zone aims to put such a large number of ships around the Senkakus that they can make a move – to include landing people on the Senkakus – and claim they
(not the Japanese) have“administrative control.”

The US needs to make a firm decision – immediately – that the Senkakus are Japanese territory. And not merely under“administrative control.”

The split-the-difference approach simply encourages the
PRC
to think it can get its way if it creates“realities on the ground” and elbows the Japanese out of the way.

Chinese encroachments on the Senkakus are the logical outcome of a vacillating if not incoherent US policy regarding the Senkakus. That has been superbly documented by Robert Eldridge .

Until about 2009 or 2010, the United States government didn't even give much thought to the Senkakus. But when the Chinese started applying pressure on the Senkakus the Americans had to address the issue. The Japanese of course insisted that the US make a clear statement regarding the islands.

To Tokyo, the Senkakus are not a disposable group of rocks in the middle of the ocean.

If the US does not help Japan defend the Senkakus, it might fatally damage Japan-US security and political relationships. And Washington mostly understands this.

It would of course be helpful – indeed, appropriate – if Tokyo became similarly committed about its own obligations to help the US defend Taiwan. It currently is not.

From a military perspective, US military planners understand the importance of the Japanese-controlled Senkakus to US military operations in the region.

The Senkakus under Chinese control would greatly complicate and threaten US military operations in the area and in support of Taiwan. China, of course, knows this.

The Americans and Japanese ought to be conducting joint air and naval patrols and exercises around the Senkakus. They should furthermore be expanding nascent joint training in the broader
Nansei Shoto
(Ryukyu Islands) region.

In fact, the entire defense of the southern islands should be a fully joint US-JSDF effort. That is, from command and control down to tactical levels.

And Japan and the US should put personnel on the Senkakus themselves.

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The US Army's HIMARS rocket artillery system (left) which was being deployed to the Nansei Islands, and the Japanese Ground Self Defense Force“Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missile,” pictured on August 31, 2022, at GSDF Camp Amami. Photo: © Sankei by Toyohiro Ichioka

Also, there are two military firing ranges in the waters near the Senkakus that the Americans have the right to use under the Japan-US security treaty – and these are particularly valuable to honing naval and air gunnery skills.

However, US forces have not used the ranges since the Carter administration. The idea was to placate the Chinese and get better behavior from Beijing. The Americans should realize by now that this hasn't worked. They should use the ranges and invite the JSDF along as well.

Let Beijing know that this is all regular, lawful and nothing to worry about. The political and psychological benefits of such actions would be considerable – and would be in direct proportion to how loudly Beijing howls.

Beijing will decide whether a fight breaks out around the Senkakus.

But the Americans and the Japanese need to hurry and do what's necessary to convince the PRC it will lose such a fight. And also convince Beijing that its
gray zone
osmosis strategy won't work either.

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book
When China Attacks: A Warning To America .

This article was first published by JAPAN Forward. It is republished with kind permission.

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