Divining Xi's Behavior: It's All About Power

Instill enough fear and it's less likely anyone will take down the boss. Or so the theory goes.

Or perhaps Xi wants to get his team of totally pliant toadies and incompetents in place. Men who pose no threat to him – and who will follow orders when he makes a move somewhere? Say, against Taiwan , India , Mongolia or Japan?

Xi has clearly been trying to get control of the economy as well – particularly, the more productive parts that aren't under tight enough state control. It seems as if Xi were purposely tanking the economy – wouldn't mind making the middle class and the more prosperous coastal provinces toughen up.

Maybe this is Xi's version of“draining the swamp.”

Harassing foreign firms in China seems an act of self-harm.
But think about it in terms of consolidating power and control and there's a logic.
Still, it's only doable if Xi thinks he can get away with it.

And that suggests contempt for foreign businessmen who, Xi must reckon, will put up with any amount of abuse if they think they can make money in China.

But to do that, Xi's got to have confidence that China can withstand any pressure or backlash that comes from this clampdown.

Xi also seems to have been sanction-proofing China for a while now.
It's not sanction-proofed just yet, but if he's willing to have his own citizens“eat bitterness” it may not matter so much.

• Achieve regional domination
  and control.
• Teach the Japanese a lesson.
• Drive the Americans out of Asia.
• And – ultimately – have global dominance.

Perhaps Xi reckons the timing is right in terms
of China's military capability,
economic power and demographics as well as the PRC's overseas foreign influence.

For all the news that the United States has been kind of waking up to the China threat, and the Europeans, as well, there are plenty of other countries that are aligning with the PRC.

Latin America and Africa almost seem like clean sweeps for Beijing at the moment. Parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands are either on China's side or wavering. And the Persian Gulf and Middle East have seen recent Chinese inroads as well.

No more following Deng Xiaoping 's admonition about biding one's time and hiding capabilities.

Xi must also like what he sees the United States doing to itself. He may doubt the US capability to restore its economic independence and clout. And to get its military where it needs to be within the next 5-10 years, if that.

Indeed, the PRC knows many of the people on Team
Joe Biden
from way back. It could be counting on their proclivity to back down and“talk ,” while offering concessions to ensure the Chinese don't walk away from the table.

One fairly imagines Beijing won't mind getting another four years of this crowd.

I don't know. But he might be sorely tempted.

What a fight would look like and where it would happen is up for debate. But Taiwan and the
South China Sea
seem likely.

Even if there's no shooting yet, Xi is pushing if you look at Chinese moves around Taiwan,
the Philippines , and Japan. The PLA is doing more things, more often, in more places – and sometimes it's even bringing its friends in the form of
Russia .

And the Chinese military keeps improving its capabilities.
All this PLA activity influences and wears out the opponent. It also lets the PLA and Beijing size up their targets' military responses and capabilities as well as their political backbone to stand up to Chinese pressure.

Of course, it can also have the opposite effect. It could motivate these nations to strengthen defenses and alliances.
And to some extent, it is.

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Regardless, Xi is doubling down.

How about the US?

And it's almost as if Xi were daring the Americans to“do something.” It's a miracle that Chinese naval and air interdictions of US and allied aircraft and ships haven't killed somebody yet.

The China-Philippines dispute at Second Thomas Shoal will come to a head sooner or later. And the Americans will either get directly involved or else leave the Filipinos in the lurch again. The latter would shake the US-Philippines alliance, to say the least.

Yet, Team Biden still seems to prioritize more discussions over strengthening America's defense. Where's the plan for rebuilding US shipbuilding or the US Navy?

Instead, as one acquaintance put it:“It would seem that the American leadership is firmly trying to walk back confronting China.”

The US leadership talks (over and over) about the need to“stabilize” and“responsibly manage” the US-PRC relationship through“intensive diplomacy” and talking things out with Beijing.

As if US administrations (bar one) hadn't tried this over the last 50 years. Beijing is glad to have Team Biden think that's still possible. And Xi is acting accordingly. He is getting ready.

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book
When China Attacks: A Warning To America . This article was originally published by JAPAN Forward and is republished with permission.

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