Even A Trump Return Likely Wouldn't Dislodge AUKUS

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But what about a Donald Trump - or Trumpist - comeback in 2024?

The stakes of the 2024 presidential election are high. The possibility of civil disorder is real, as is a sharp turn towards authoritarianism. In foreign policy, more Trumpism would mean more quasi-isolationism and a great deal more unilateralism, possibly including withdrawing support to Ukraine and NATO against Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Yet even in this extreme scenario, AUKUS would likely survive. Few causes today unite the US political class - from traditional Republicans to MAGA-style populists to many Democrats - as effectively as opposition to the rise of China.

Add to this a long-standing bipartisan desire for the strongest possible military, and there's good reason to expect continued investment in the trilateral partnership as a means of countering Beijing's bid to expand its sphere of influence .

The UK and Australia will stay the course too.

The main Australian political parties are united in boosting the pact's benefits while minimizing its risks and costs .

In the UK, where the Labor party is likely to win the next election, AUKUS is solid because it fulfils the country's long-standing foreign policy goals: a “special relationship” with the US and meaningful contribution to global security .

Importantly, support for AUKUS is not confined to the three member states. Japan , Singapore, South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan have all welcomed the pact as a counterweight to China. The same goes for Canada and New Zealand , both of which are already in the intelligence-pooling Five Eyes partnership with AUKUS nations.

In fact, now that American officials are touting Pillar 2's “open door” policy, some of these countries - including France - could soon be lining up to join the trilateral policy process in one way or another.

Wind in the sails of the trilateral partnership is also blowing in from India .

Rather than voicing loud concerns about nuclear non-proliferation and regional arms races, India tacitly supports the partnership. This is crucial for the pact because the strategically non-aligned India has considerable power to make or break any US-led strategy to deter China.

An aspect of this influence is on display in Ukraine: India's unwillingness to join western sanctions against Russia is one of the reasons why Putin continues to wage his war.

The region's other major players, including key Association of Southeast Asian Nations states Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, are much more wary about the pact. Yet the accelerating US-China rivalry may push them to make a choice.

Just a few days ago, we saw this process at work in Hanoi, where US President Joe Biden and his Vietnamese hosts held a news conference to remind the world that former foes can become strategic partners of the “highest tier.”

AUKUS certainly faces political challenges right now, and the next year may bring even deeper problems. And since it deals with so many mega-projects, its implementation will always be difficult.

However, big-picture geopolitical realities suggest, AUKUS is here to stay.

Srdjan Vucetic is an associate professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at L'Université d'Ottawa/University of Ottawa .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .