Climate-Induced Disasters Killed 552 People Over Past 10 Years In J & K

In Budgam district's Gurwaith village many people are yet to overcome the trauma caused to the villagers when two people were killed on May 6 this year by lighting while they were herding their sheep in a pasture. On the same day two more people were killed by lightning in a village in Pulwama district while they were working in their farm. Another person was killed by lightning on July 7 in Kulgam.

As many as 2863 extreme weather events in J&K have killed 552 people between 2010 and 2022 besides causing heavy damage to infrastructure and livestock, says a study
Extreme Weather Events induced mortalities in Jammu and Kashmir, India during 2010-2022, published in the
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Interestingly, out of the total 2863 extreme weather events, 1942 are the lightning events forming the bulk of the overall extreme weather events followed by 409 heavy rainfall events, 186 landslides, 168 flash floods, 48 heat waves, 42 heavy snowfall events, 37 cold waves and 31 windstorms in the time period analysed in the study.

According to Mukhtar Ahmed, lead author of the study, there has been an increase in extreme weather events over the past two decades which is seen as a manifestation of global warming and human-caused climate change.

Ahmed said that deaths due to extreme weather events have also increased over the years. He, however, added that despite the increase in extreme weather events, deaths due to heavy rain and snow have decreased which is mainly attributed to better early warning, weather forecasts and improved disaster management.“Otherwise, such mortalities would have been manifold,” Ahmed told
Kashmir Observer.

For the villagers in Gurwaith, the lightning strike was a bolt from the blue which sent shivers down their spines.“Lightning has never killed anyone in our village despite being a forest village. But that incident on that fateful day has shocked us all as it took away two lives from our village,” villagers in Gurwaith said.

“People are scared following the [May 6] incident. Everyone switches the phone off and rushes home when the weather turns bad,” said Saif-u-Din Dinda, a villager. Dinda was among the first few who saw the bodies of two villagers killed by lightning on May 6 in Mujpathri pasture.

“We saw them lying lifeless on the ground around this tree when we got here,” Dinda said about the incident while pointing at the tree which was struck by lightning.“Soon we informed other villagers and shifted the bodies to the village in an ambulance.”

Dinda and elderly villagers said that they have never heard of any such incident in the area in the past.“We used to witness light thunderstorms while herding our sheep. No one was ever killed by lightning. This was the first time that lightning killed our dear ones,” said Khadija Begam whose husband, Mohammad Sultan Chopan, was one among the four people killed by May-6 lightning incidents.

Begam's next door neighbor, Ashfaq Ahmad Chopan, who lost his mother in the lightning strike on the same day, said that despite the scare caused by two lightning deaths, the villagers can't afford to remain indoors every time in overcast conditions.“We should be informed in advance about such dangers so that our livelihoods aren't affected,” Chopan said. Ahmed, however, said that his department continuously issues warnings about extreme weather events via traditional and social media.

Across the country, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) identifies lightning as a
measure weather hazard
in recent years with most of the deaths happening in rural areas.

Central government officials say that measures such as establishing
lightning detection centres ,
early warnings early and providing people area-specific information about lightning via a
mobile phone app lication
are being taken, but lightning strikes continue to kill people annually across the country. According to official records, lightning strikes kill an average 2,500 people annually across the country.

The
2021 report
of National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) about accidental deaths reveals that out of 7,126 deaths due to natural forces such as floods, avalanches, lightning, cyclones and landslides in that year, 40% of those deaths were caused by lightning alone across the country. In recent years, lightning deaths have formed the largest percentage of annual tally of deaths due to natural forces -
39% in 2020, 35% in 2019 and 34% in 2018 - and these figures are way higher than 10% in year 2012 and 12% in 2013.

In July 2021, as many as
68 people were killed
by lightning
on a single day in three different states in India. In a single week in July last year, as many as
50 people were killed
by lightning in Uttar Pradesh. In May 2021, a herd of
18 elephants
was killed by lightning in Assam.

“Most of the victims who are caught unawares by lightning strikes include farmers, herders, fishers and construction workers who always work outdoors,” said Ahmed.

“Our major challenge remains people who work outdoors – farmers, herders, fishermen and children in rural schools,” said Sanjay Srivastava, convener of the Lightning Resilient India Campaign and member of the National Panel of Experts on Lightning in National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).

“Our main focus is to create awareness among people that the best defence against lightning is avoiding staying outdoors during lightning,” Srivastava said adding that the government will create safe shelters in lightning prone districts in India besides a massive awareness campaign through National Lightning Programme which will be launched soon.

Citing the data from NCRB, Sunil Pawar, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), said that there has been 100 per cent increase in lightning deaths across India.

According to Pawar, frequency of lightning strikes has also increased ranging from 20 to 35 percent increase in different regions as per the analysis of lightning data by him and his colleagues at IITM.

“We observed that lightning frequency has increased in various regions such as Himalayas,” Pawar said and added that surface heating and moisture availability is increasing due to global warming which, along with air pollution, is causing the increase in lightning strikes.“Surface temperature, increase in moisture and pollution particles are all favorable factors for lightning formation,” he said.

Meanwhile, the study by Ahmed and his colleagues has found that Jammu & Kashmir is also witnessing flash floods, cloudbursts and unusually high temperatures resulting in loss of livestock, damage to infrastructure and dozens of deaths in what are seen as manifestations of global warming and human-caused climate change.

As per the study, district-wise results of extreme weather events results revealed that highest deaths due to heavy snow were caused in Kupwara, Bandipora, Baramulla and Ganderbal districts. Similarly for flash floods, highest deaths were shown by Kishtwar, Anantnag, Ganderbal and Doda districts.

In the first week of November in 2018 and 2019, says the study, Jammu & Kashmir witnessed early snowfall which resulted in huge devastation to the horticulture sector. This was followed by harsh winter conditions in 2019 and 2020, the study has found.

“In the South Kashmir district of Shopian, the temperature went down to as low as -15C. The month of March, which is considered to be the wettest month in terms of rainfall, was almost 10 degrees warmer compared to the previous years and lead to early snow melt in alpine landscapes. The region witnessed the heaviest rainfall between May and July 2022, resulting in a dozen flash floods in the environmentally fragile valley (which) caused loss of lives and damage to agricultural crops and other assets,” the study says and adds:“From long dry spells to excessive rainfall, 2022 [was] a year of extremes.” Ahmed told Kashmir Observer that the current has also turned out to be a year of weather extremes so far given alternate spells of hot and cold weather from January to July.

According to the study, limited studies have been carried out in the past to analyse the trends of extreme weather events related mortalities in Jammu and Kashmir with limited data set and dealing with only one type of extreme weather event.

“In order to develop better disaster management programmes and policy planning, there is a need to study and explore all major types of extreme weather events during the last 10 to 15 years. Keeping in mind the increased frequency and mortality due to these events, [they] need to be critically studied,” the study suggests.

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