(MENAFN- The Peninsula) Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party lost its majority in parliament following the June 7 parliamentary elections. Feyza Gumusluoglu spoke to Birol Baskan, a Turkish political scientist teaching at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar, about the likely post-poll scenarios.
Who were the winners and losers in the elections?
The loser in the elections was the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The winner was the Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP). The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) also did well. The Republican People's Party (CHP) neither won nor lost.
In the 2011 elections, the AKP got 21.3 million votes. In 2015, it got 18.8 million votes. In other words, the AKP lost 2.5 million votes. Also note that there were around two million new voters in the 2015 elections. The AKP's vote share dropped from 49.8 percent to 40.8 percent, which is a drastic drop, and the AKP lost its majority in parliament.
Considering that there was an international media campaign against Erdogan and that the party has been in power for 13 years, is this not a good result for AKP?
No, it is not. How many people read The New York Times in Turkey and vote? In fact, that campaign helped Erdogan because he could tell his supporters, "look they are after me." The international campaign helped Erdogan consolidate his support base.
Any party in power for so long is definitely going to be worn out. But it might also have given it an advantage because the AKP could mobilise enormous resources in its electoral campaign, which no other political party in Turkey, even a coalition of them, could have matched. Because it has been in power for the last 13 years, the party could abuse state resources; even the supposedly bipartisan Directorate of Religious Affairs worked for the AKP's electoral campaign; the AKP also controlled the major media outlets, including the state-owned ones. More importantly, the party had accumulated so much power and so much resources that it could literally buy votes. The playing field was definitely uneven. The elections could, therefore, be even described as unfair. Yet the AKP could not prevent a drastic drop in its vote share.
Why do you think the HDP is the winner?
In 2011, the party entered the elections by fielding independent candidates. The independents got 2.8 million votes in 2011. The HDP contested the elections as a party in 2015 and got six million votes. In other words, the party doubled its votes. The party increased its vote share from 6.57 percent to 13.1 percent, and the number of its seats from 35 to 80. This is a great success by any criteria.
By the way, this happened despite all the hardships the party went through. Its election offices were attacked several times, and the state did nothing to prevent these attacks, and did not bother to find the culprits. Some HDP supporters were wounded, some were even killed in these attacks.
Turkey seemed to be doing great. Why did the AKP lose?
First, Turkey was not doing great. The economy was stagnating. But I do not think the economy was a factor in the polls. Those who cared voted for the AKP. But there were other problems brewing. Two of them really mattered: Increasing authoritarianism and the Kurds' estrangement.
Many in Turkey have long been worried about the increasing authoritarianism of the AKP. The Gezi protests erupted in 2013 because of that, and the AKP did not learn its lesson. In fact, it made more enemies. A religious group, known as the Gulen movement, turned totally against Erdogan. This group's vote share might be negligible, but they have television and radio stations, newspapers and journals. The group basically opened up its media outlets to the opposition. The opposition otherwise did not have much access to the media. In short, a good chunk of the electorate really voted on the future of democracy in Turkey. And most of them voted strategically. Meaning, they could have voted for the CHP or the MHP, but they did not. They voted for the HDP and helped it cross the electoral threshold of 10 percent. Once past the threshold, the HDP got 80 seats in parliament, which would otherwise have gone to the AKP. In the 2002 elections, the AKP got 35 percent of the votes but got around 65 percent of the seats because only one other party passed the threshold. Turkey's electoral system can produce extremely unfair outcomes.
Could a presidential system be a solution, as President Erdogan has suggested?
No. The problem with the electoral system is not the parliamentary system; it is the high electoral threshold of 10 percent. Even though the AKP had every opportunity to reduce this threshold to an acceptable level, it did not do so because the threshold was to their advantage. This must be the first order of business for the new parliament. If it is not reduced, the electoral threshold will continue to produce parliaments that cannot work.
As for Erdogan's presidential dreams, they must be over for now. What Erdogan wanted was a system which endowed the president with almost tyrannical powers. He saw the parliament and the judiciary as unnecessary hindrances. It was not the American-style system, where there are effective checks and balances, that he wanted. Maybe he miscommunicated what he wanted, but it seemed to many that he wanted tyrannical powers.
What about the Kurds? The AKP gave them rights they had not had before, and even held talks with the PKK. What went wrong with them?
The AKP lost votes across all provinces in Turkey. I am not sure if it increased its vote in any province. The party lost the most in provinces where the HDP has a strong presence or where the Kurds are concentrated.
For example, the AKP's vote share fell from 40 percent to 25 percent in Ardahan; from 37 percent to 18 percent in Batman; from 67 percent to 47 percent in Bingol; from 50 percent to 31 percent in Bitlis province; and from 32 percent to 14 percent in Diyarbakir. The conclusion is obvious.
Many Kurds did not vote for the AKP this time. Why?
It seems the AKP somehow disappointed the Kurds. This happened, as you said, despite many positive steps the party took to solve the Kurdish problem. The only obvious answer that comes to my mind is that some tragic events and some insensitive remarks seem to have estranged the Kurds from the AKP.
I remember the Uludere incident, where 34 Kurds who were smuggling goods between Iraq and Turkey were killed by Turkish fighter jets. It later turned out that the armed forces were misinformed. They thought they were PKK guerillas. However, they were ordinary citizens. The Kurds reacted. The AKP let the incident pass without punishing anyone. This, I believe, deeply hurt the Kurds.
That incident happened in late 2011. But, more recently, there was the Kobane incident. When the Islamic State attacked the Kurdish town of Kobane or Ain Al Arab, many Kurds escaped into Turkey. I believe Turkey's inaction in the face of the massacre right in front of its eyes deeply hurt the Kurds. I heard this from a colleague who visited the region around that time. She told me that the Kurds were not going to vote for the party because of Kobane. She turned out to be right. After Kobane, there were street clashes between the people and the security forces in the southeast of Turkey, where the Kurds are. Fifty people were killed in the clashes. The attacks on the HDP during the campaign could also have pushed the Kurds towards the HDP.
What now?
Well, the AKP has lost its majority in parliament. Turkey is going to be ruled by a coalition government. Fortunately, Turkey is not new to this territory. Unfortunately, however, Turkey is not good at it. Coalition governments have often brought political instability and economic crises.
Which parties are likely to form the government?
I very much hope that the CHP, the MHP and the HDP form the government. The AKP is too worn out. They need to take a break and reflect on their past achievements and mistakes. During this break the AKP can clear out the corrupt and nepotistic members in its ranks. But will the AKP do that? I do not think so. Because it is the largest party, it will be the first to try to form a coalition government. And by giving the MHP enough seats in the cabinet, they might persuade it. I believe this is the most likely coalition scenario: an AKP-MHP coalition. The HDP has said that it is not going to form a coalition with the AKP.
The CHP is also not going to form any coalition with the AKP, for it represents a social base that is totally against the AKP. The AKP and the MHP have ideologically close social bases.
Will it work?
Unfortunately, I do not think it will. As I said, Turkey is not good at coalition governments. I do not think that it will succeed this time. Moreover, there is the Erdogan factor. Erdogan is now the president, who is supposed to stay out of politics. But he has not, and it is unlikely he will. He actually campaigned for the AKP. The party's leaders might not have any problem with his interventions, but the MHP leadership will.
What will happen if a coalition government is not formed?
I guess Turkey will have early elections. I do not know when, but I do not think that any coalition government is going to last more than two years. I will be shocked if it lasts even an year. In short, Turkey may have escaped authoritarianism, but it has plunged into a period of great political uncertainty. Turkey has a lot of problems. Its democracy, economy, social peace and trust, foreign relations, all are in coma. The AKP cannot help solve these problems, for it is the AKP's policies that threw Turkey into this coma in the first place. I am not optimistic. I hope the turn of events proves me wrong.
Do you expect any change in Turkey's foreign policy?
I do. But, for sure, it all depends on which parties will be in the coalition. Even if the AKP stays in power, I do not think that it can continue to support the opposition in Syria as much as it used to do. I do not know how this might change the balance of power on the ground, though. Other than that, I do not expect major improvement in any relations, even with Egypt.
What about Turkey-Qatar relations?
If the AKP stays in government, I do not expect much change. If the AKP does not stay in government, then there might be some retreat in the ties. You know there has been a negative media campaign against Qatar. So many Turks and Kurds who support the CHP, the MHP and the HDP might have negative feelings about Qatar because of that campaign and Qatar's good relations with the AKP. But, of course, this is unfair. The Turks and the Kurds must be informed that Qatar is a friend of all Turkey, not just the AKP. We must avoid the Egyptian scenario, where Qatar was subjected to unfair treatment. The Turks and the Kurds must know that friendship with Qatar is in Turkey's interests. Qatar has also strong interests in friendship with Turkey. And this is not a partisan issue. This is about national interest.
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