(MENAFNEditorial)
We forecast a moderate return to growth for Argentina's construction industry at 1.5% in 2015 partly as a result of low base effects and an investment drive prior to the October presidential elections. Growth will be driven by energy and transport infrastructure projects where Chinese and Russian investors will play a key role.
Key Trends And Developments
* Our Country Risk team forecasts Argentina's economic recession will persist in 2015 and will be deeper than we previously forecast due to weak private consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) which is a good proxy for infrastructure. They forecast real GDP to contract by 1.3% this year which compares with estimated growth of -0.5% in 2014.
* Consumer price inflation will remain elevated in 2015 on the back of an increase in government spending in advance of the October general elections. Double-digit inflation (forecast at 17.0% in 2015) will erode real purchasing power of consumers and weigh on sentiment which will be detrimental to the construction of new homes. This is in addition to Argentina's largely dollarised real estate sector which has suffered severely from the scarcity of dollars derived from the government's exchange controls.
* Interventionist government policies by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner have damaged Argentina's business environment and despite efforts to improve the investment climate over the past year inbound investment will remain muted through the end of the current administration's term in mid-December. Most notably import restrictions are hurting the construction industry by increasing the cost of materials and limiting access to capital.
* However after a new government is inaugurated in 2016 we expect GFCF will return to real expansion. Businesses will begin construction of fixed assets as expectations for more business-friendly policies such as tax incentives for investment are implemented. Further the end of Fernandez's...
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/991574_argentina_infrastructure.aspx?afid=101
The Argentina Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects including transportation and logistics by land sea and air; power plants and utilities and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Argentina Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian infrastructure and construction industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Argentinian infrastructure market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Argentina.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social commercial and residential) transport (roads railways ports airports etc) and energy & utilities (powerplants pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads railways airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport utilities commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors with each position explained.
Market Overview
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Company Profiles*
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