Requiem For Canada? Regional Tensions, Changing Demographics May Fuel Trump's Annexation Hopes

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Donald Trump's repeated taunts about Canada becoming the 51st American state carry more weight than his usual rhetorical grenades, causing chaos among Canada's Political leaders.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has even paid a visit to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida alongside media personalities Kevin O'Leary and Jordan Peterson, prompting a rebuke from her Ontario counterpart, Doug Ford .

In fact, behind the United States president-elect's bullying lies a barely hidden fault line: Canada's survival faces challenges not only from the U.S., but from within, due to fraying internal alliances and the detachment of the political ruling class from economic and demographic realities.

Trump is poised to capitalize on this vacuum.

At the heart of Canada's struggle lies the weakening“Laurentian alliance” - the historical partnership between Ontario and Québec that has shaped the nation's power dynamics and resistance to American influence. Canada can be understood as a collection of disparate groups that politely said“no” to the American experiment, beginning with Ontario and Québec.

The economic dreams of newcomers, however - who now comprise the biggest part of Canada's growing population - likely have little investment or interest in that alliance.

This potential unravelling presents us with a peculiar tragedy: a nation of wealth and promise, dismembering itself unwittingly due to the myopia of political elites who are failing to face these realities.

Amid a focus on causes like net-zero emissions , which energy scholar Vaclav Smil has cautioned is“wishful thinking ,” a more profound transformation is unfolding. The country's centre of gravity is shifting westward toward its energy base, leaving behind a governing party with preoccupations that don't appear to represent those of many working Canadians.

This is perhaps different from the drama of the 1990s, when the western-dominated Reform Party and Québec sovereigntists challenged the established order. Instead, we could be witnessing a structural realignment that would permanently alter Canada's equilibrium. These twin movements of the 1990s were merely a harbinger; today's fissures could deepen.

The economic numbers paint a clear picture. While Ontario and Québec maintain a cozy trade relationship ($85 billion in 2021), western Canada's trade with the rest of the country is a mere $31 billion.

A remarkable 87 per cent of Alberta's exports flow to the U.S., with the Prairies not far behind. With the notable exception of the Vancouver region, the West is more integrated with American markets than Canadian ones - which undoubtedly explains Smith's trip to Mar-a-Lago.

Read more: Canada, the 51st state? Eliminating interprovincial trade barriers could ward off Donald Trump

A growing number of Canadians are also moving to Alberta. In 2024, 26,000 Ontarians moved to Alberta, up from 23,000 in 2023. People from British Columbia and the Maritimes are also moving in large numbers to Alberta . And nearly 20 per cent of people from the Prairie provinces are comfortable joining the U.S , although a more recent poll suggests Canadians in all provinces are overwhelmingly opposed (but at 18 per cent, Albertans are the most in favour).

Official bilingualism preserves the power of Ontario and Québec despite immigration and westward migration.

But outside of Québec and New Brunswick, few Canadians speak French as a first language. Yet bilingualism remains a de facto requirement for top government positions, leading some to suggest it's exclusive .

Read more: Unable to work in their official language of choice, some public servants are quitting - to Canada's detriment

The current federal government, led by the scion of the Trudeau family, arguably embodies what former prime minister Joe Clark once diagnosed in a critique of Pierre Elliott Trudeau: the Liberal Party is the preserve of an isolated elite, a dynastic and self-congratulatory closed circle whose understanding of Canada extends no further than a few echo chambers.

Meanwhile, resource-dependent provinces simmer with resentment as opportunity is constrained.

The recent parliamentary session that concluded with the son of a former governor-general, Dominic LeBlanc, stepping in as emergency finance minister at the behest of the son of a former prime minister could be considered an illustration of modern-day echo chambers.

As we look ahead to Canada's future, two scenarios emerge.

The first involves gradual absorption into the American sphere - not with a bang, but with quiet acquiescence out of necessity. While it may not look like a quick or clean“merger,” it will simply continue the integration that began with the North American Free-Trade Agreement under the late Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney .

British Columbia, with its Asia-facing commerce and environmental concerns, may come to further resemble a city-state, while the Prairies will continue to find natural alignment with the U.S.

The second scenario could see the simultaneous assertion of Québec's perennial sovereignty and Alberta's alienation reaching a logical conclusion. This would leave Ontario clutching the remnants of a confederation that has outlived its resistance to American integration.

Both scenarios may unfold gradually along the country's natural fault lines, driven by economic necessity rather than political revolution. The Laurentian alliance's apparent obliviousness to these fundamental shifts is striking as it remains fixated on issues that are at odds with the federation's resource-based regional realities.

Read more: Why Canada needs to embrace innovations in democracy

The fundamental question facing Canada is how to confront these emerging realities.

In an era when Canadians are migrating westward seeking economic opportunity, when newcomers arrive with aspirations untethered from historical anti-Americanism and when the U.S. exerts ever-stronger economic and cultural might, the stakes are clear.

Canada retains considerable strengths - stable institutions, abundant resources and an educated population - but these assets alone are insufficient to overcome a deeper crisis of purpose.

The country must either forge a renewed identity that acknowledges contemporary realities or capitulate as its southern neighbour rises to the occasion instead.

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