Moscow-Washington Nuclear Hotline Has Averted War In The Past But Cool Heads Will Be Needed In Trump's White House And Putin's Kremlin

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Donald trump has repeatedly claimed that he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours . This is, of course, unlikely. Even a quick negotiated end to a conflict between Ukraine and Russia would hinge on Ukrainian and Russian willingness to negotiate in good faith – a commodity that is in particularly short supply at the moment.

Perhaps the US president-elect's customary threats and demands will force warring parties to talk peace. But that style of diplomacy could come at the price of ramping up the risk of escalating rather than ending the war.

This would also be a particularly dangerous game to play at a time of increasingly aggressive Russian nuclear posturing. Since it attacked Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has increased the readiness of its nuclear forces and threatened multiple countries including Ukraine, the UK and Finland with nuclear weapons use or weapons deployment closer to their borders.

Russia also significantly lowered the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons to include non-nuclear states that support Russia's nuclear-armed enemies.

Read more: Putin's nuclear threats aim to scare the west – but Ukraine's allies are now calling his bluff

While the credibility of these threats remains to be seen, Russia and the US find themselves on opposing sides in other areas of the world, too. This includes the Middle East, where the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has been a blow to Russia's pride. And in the Gaza war, the US supports Israel while Russia backs Iran, which has repeatedly threatened Israel with a larger war.

The close personal ties between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, their shared view on mounting US pressures in the Asia-Pacific regions , and increasing skirmishes between Chinese and rival states in the South China Sea make this region a pressure point where the US could face off with both China and Russia.

Overall, Trump assumes the presidency at a time when the likelihood of unwanted crisis escalation. So, the risk of nuclear weapons use and the potential for Russian-American confrontation is higher than any time since the end of the Cold War.

The fear of conflict escalation and nuclear weapons use began to tail off after the end of the cold war, so the renewed threat is new to younger generations. But until the 1990s these issues plagued the world with particular severity. Luckily, during the cold war, diplomatic countermeasures were established which still exist today. The most notable one of these is the Moscow-Washington hotline, or “Molink” .

The idea of a hotline, which was originally a teletype connection and now operates as a secure email link, grew out of cold war arms control negotiations as a preventative measure to reduce international tensions, avert crisis escalation and moderate the risk of nuclear war.

It was established in August 1963 after the Cuban missile crisis proved that both sides wanted to avoid a nuclear exchange. The crisis was famously resolved through a back channel – but the episode showed how direct and confidential communications between leaders were vital to this end.

The hotline was used approximately 18 times during the cold war. It helped to stave off the turning of regional wars such as the Indo-Pakistani war of 1971 and the Lebanese civil war in 1978 into global ones on many occasions.

Molink played an especially important role in avoiding miscalculation as a result of miscommunication during the six-day war in 1967. The then US president, Lyndon Johnson, was able to reassure the Russian premier Aleksey Nikolayevich Kosygin of his awareness that the USS Liberty had been sunk by Israel , not by the Soviet Union.

Six years later in the Yom Kippur war, Leonid Brezhnev and Richard Nixon successfully deescalated the situation that resulted from the US raising its level of military readiness to two steps away from nuclear war. And in 1984, a hotline message from Moscow to Washington averted the misinterpretation of an aberrant Soviet missile launch over the Barents Sea towards the German city of Hamburg.

Sometimes the Molink was used productively outside crises. Most notably, in 1986 Mikhail Gorbachev transmitted a 15-page-long handwritten letter to Ronald Reagan via this device. This letter contributed to the development of good personal relations between them. Their relationship was instrumental in concluding multiple arms control agreements and bringing about the end of the cold war.

The hotline could serve Trump well today in his efforts to bring peace about in Ukraine and deescalate tensions globally. Just initiating contact with Moscow via the hotline would symbolise his commitment to a new beginning. But to be a man of peace, he needs to make major behavioural adjustments.

My research suggested that the Molink's use is historically seen on both sides as a confession of weakness. In every situation where the hotline was used it was a conciliatory rather than aggressive move. This is not compatible with either Trump or Putin's political style, which tends to be based on the projection of strength and power.

Trump is known for his unpredictability and preference for bullying others into compliance using threats, demands and mockery. These character traits are antithetical to hotline communications, which require patience, calm, civility and consistency to succeed.

Additionally, aggressive communications are unlikely to convince Putin to cooperate. Indeed, they are more likely to exacerbate than to ease tensions.

Based on my research on Molink and the occasions that it has been used in the past, I wonder whether either leader has the temperament to use it constructively. It may be better for both Trump and Putin to stay away from the hotline and try to engineer peace by using lower-level and more traditional diplomatic channels.

Meanwhile, the hotline will remain as a last resort. As such, it will be a means to assure public confidence at the time of nuclear brinkmanship and global tensions.

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