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At the beginning of trading in the new year 2025, the pressure to sell the pound sterling continued and its losses against the US dollar extended to the support level of 1.2352. Obviously, this is the lowest for the pound sterling dollar pair in eight months before settling around the level of 1.2417 at the beginning of trading in the US jobs week and the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the US federal Reserve.
Will the Pound Sterling rise in the coming period?
According to reliable trading company platforms, the pressures on the Sterling continue, but some analysts do not believe that this move will continue. According to recent trades, the losses incurred by the Pound Sterling followed news of a decline in the UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index and another rise in wholesale gas prices to their highest levels in two years.
Developments confirm that the UK's economic outlook for 2025 will be challenging, but this is not new news, and the move made by the Pound Sterling far exceeded what was expected given the secondary nature of these developments. However, if this is the correct assessment, then the Pound Sterling may find itself targeted by low-priced buyers in the coming days, which may help it recover. According to the forex market trades, the intensive selling was significant, as the GBP/USD pair lost 1.10%, its biggest daily decline since Donald Trump won the US election.
Top Forex Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money The performance of the Pound Sterling and the pressure of rising gas prices
According to currency analysts, concerns about growth in Europe remain a major focus for investors, and this could weigh on the pound and the euro as 2025 begins. In general, the topic of rising energy prices has come into focus again, and there has been another sharp rise in natural gas prices after gas supplies through Ukraine ended. The cost of wholesale gas prices in the UK rose to a two-year high, indicating higher energy costs for businesses and households. The development is particularly difficult for British companies, which will also face rising wage and tax bills in the coming months.
On the other hand, the performance of the pound is particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations from the Bank of England; markets expect two to three rate cuts in 2025, but most analysts believe the actual outcome will be four times. Therefore, the market should adjust to this view. As this happens, British bond yields and the pound should decline.
Again, it should be stressed that the movement in the pound exchange rate goes beyond the fundamental nature of developments Tips:
Keep a close eye on the future of central bank policies and the extent of investors' risk appetite or lack thereof to predict the future direction of the pound dollarSterling forecasts in 2025
Several forex market analysts expect the Pound Sterling to outperform most of its peers in 2025, aided by a relatively strong economy and a slow pace of interest rate cuts at the Bank of England. In its 2025 forecast report, NatWest Markets says the Pound Sterling looks like the "Carry King" of 2025. The term "Carry" refers to a strategy where investors borrow capital where interest rates are low to invest in financial assets where interest rates are higher, which usually provides a profit in a low-volatility environment.
Meanwhile, the subsequent flow of money to places where interest rates are higher creates demand for the recipient currency.
The Pound Sterling was the second best-performing currency in 2024 as interest rates in Britain remain high compared to elsewhere, with the Bank of England saying it will cut interest rates cautiously as inflation is expected to remain high. If this view is correct, the Pound Sterling will look attractively priced after the massive sell-off on January 2nd Analysis for the GPB/USD pair today:
The overall trend of the GBP/USD pair remains bearish, and as I mentioned before, the stability below the 1.2500 support level will continue to encourage the stronger dominance of bears on the trend. According to the daily chart performance, approaching the 1.2350 support as it happened last week pushes technical indicators towards oversold levels. Technically, we expect the selling pressure on the Sterling Dollar to continue until investors react to the announcement of US jobs figures and the content of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
EURUSD Chart by TradingView
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