(MENAFN- Live Mint) The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had earlier forecast a 55 percent chance of a La Niña onset this winter, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in an October statement, hinted at a harsh winter in North India. La Nina weather was then expected to emerge by October-November.
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But it had not arrived yet. The IMD now expects a "higher chance" of La Niña conditions developing around early next year.
What is La Niña condition, how does it affect weather in India? Here's all you need to know:
What is La Niña impact on India
La Niña means the 'little girl' in Spanish. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) describes it as the "abnormal cooling of the ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean region."
La Niña is "a climate phenomenon characterised by notably cooler sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean," a government press release read.
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It is the opposite of El Nino and can significantly impact the Indian monsoon. La Niña and El Nino are two climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can influence weather patterns around the world, including in India.
El Niño can last up to 18 months and La Niña up to three years. "The last multi-year La Niña event, began in September 2020 and prolonged into early 2023 – first 'triple dip' La Niña of the 21st century," the World Meteorological Organization said.
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La Niña typically brings more rainfall, while El Niño leads to dry spells during the monsoon season. Historically, La Niña winters are also colder than El Niño winters in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), which includes Delhi, CEEW reported .
Below-normal temperatures (colder) are generally observed during the winter season during the La Nina years. The IMD Director General had said on 2020 that During La Niña years, usually, temperature over northern parts of country becomes relatively low. "In that situation, winter may be relatively colder," he had said .
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Moreover, during a La Niña event, "normal to above-normal rainfall is received over India during the southwest monsoon season ," the Centre explained earlier in December.
"Most parts of the country receive above-normal rainfall during the La Nina years, except extreme north India and some areas over Northeast India, where rainfall below normal is likely during the La Nina years," the government's statement read.
While excessive rainfall during La Nina can lead to flooding, crop damage, and livestock loss, it can also benefit rain-fed agriculture and groundwater levels.
"Increased rainfall associated with La Niña can sometimes lead to lower temperatures over the Indian region, which might affect the growth and development of certain Kharif crops," the government said.
Weak La Niña conditions would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts.
When is La Niña conditions expected?
The IMD said in a release on December 26 that there's "an enhanced probability of La Niña conditions until early next year." It stated that currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are observed over the equatorial Pacific.
"The probability forecast indicates a higher chance of La Niña conditions developing around the JF 2025 season and an enhanced probability of La Niña conditions until early next year," the IMD said . "JF" season is the winter season, which in India is from January to February.
Meanwhile, NWS Climate Prediction Center recently predicted that La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024-January 2025 (59% chance).
Other factors that influence Indian climate
The IMD says that other factors, such as the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), also influence the Indian climate. "Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently seen across most of the Indian Ocean...," it added.
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