China Likely To Help Syria But Not Help Russia For New Silk Road

A Hebei-based writer called“Bo Ge” says in an article published on December 12 that Medvedev's remark showed that Moscow wants to“maintain its independence and seek to achieve effective interaction in particular topics” in Russia-China relations.

“Although China and Russia have cooperated in some energy and anti-terrorism matters, both sides' strategic interests are significantly different in geopolitical issues related to Europe's security and Middle East matters,” he says.“Medvedev's latest Beijing trip has failed to break the deep ice between China and Russia.”

A Henan-based columnist using the pseudonym“A book seller in the ocean” published an article with the title“China and Russia can't form an alliance; Medvedev has made a decision” on December 12.

He says the Liu-Medvedev meeting discussed the Syria and Ukraine issues. He says the new Syrian government's lack of full control of the country may allow terrorism to grow and eventually hurt China's interests in the Middle East region.

The writer says Putin's letter may have requested a boost in strategic cooperation between China and Russia in order to increase Moscow's bargaining powers on the battlefields in Kursk before potential ceasefire talks are initiated by US President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office in the White House on January 20 next year.

He reiterates Beijing's stance that China and Russia should not form an alliance.

Some Chinese commentators said Beijing will keep a close eye on the political situation in Syria but it is only doing this for its own sake, instead of helping Russia.

“Some people think the collapse of Assad's regime will hurt China's interests, but actually the incident is a great opportunity for China,” a Hong Kong-based columnist writes in an article.“China's interests will be hurt only if Syria becomes chaotic .”

He says former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had failed in his efforts to boost the local economy and eliminate anti-government forces and ISIS for many years, making China unable to complete its Southern Silk Road to connect China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Iraq and Syria.

He points out that China's total direct investment in Syria had only been US$13.24 million as of the end of 2022, far below the US$300 billion figure rumored by netizens.

“By offering humanitarian aid, China can build a good relationship with the new Syrian government,” he says.“China and Syria can have economic cooperation while China may contribute to the reconstruction projects there.”

A Beijing-based writer says setting up the Northen Silk Road to connect China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland may not be a wise choice for Beijing.

“For now it's not a question of passing through Russia as Sino-Russia relations are good,” he says.“But what of we need to seek help from Russia one day? How much do we have to pay?”He adds that Poland may also not be a reliable trade partner.

He says China's Southern Silk Road may pass through Turkey but the Middle East country will probably ask Beijing for a large sum of money. Now, he says, Syria is a new option for China to build its Silk Road.

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Sino-Russia bilateral trade

In the first 10 months of this year, the bilateral trade between China and Russia grew 2.8% year-on-year to US$202 billion, according to the Chinese customs. However, the figure dropped 5% year-on-year to US$20.5 billion in November.

China's exports to Russia also fell 10.5% year-on-year in November after growing 24.4% in October.

Prior to this, in September, China approved the Regulations on Civil-Military Dual-Use Items after G7 countries raised concerns in Apri about Chinese firms' shipments of weapon components to Russia. Earlier this year, the country urged local financial institutions to stop accepting payments from Russia in renminbi to avoid US sanctions.

As Beijing keeps Moscow at arm's length, the customs department of Russia's eastern city of Vladivosto has imposed a 55.65% tariff on China-made furniture parts since autumn.

In October, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a plan to gradually increase its“recycling fee” for auto buyers by 70-85% from current levels by 2030. The fee, which is seen as another form of tariff targeting Chinese vehicles, will increase by 10-20% from the beginning of 2025.

Read: First salvo of a Russia-China trade war

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