Will Trump's Second Term Bring Peace Or Peril To The Middle East?

(MENAFN- Daily News Egypt) trump has returned to the White House with a historic and unprecedented victory in the United States. However, despite Trump's apparent popularity, it is important to emphasize that the Arab community's punitive voting against the Democratic Party due to its negative stance on the Gaza conflict played a crucial role in Trump's success in Michigan, which significantly influenced the overall election results.

Indeed, the lack of recognition of Arabs as a distinct ethnic group, similar to whites, blacks, and Latinos, in the American census complicates the accurate counting of Arab populations. However, estimates suggest that the number of Arab voters is no less than three hundred thousand. While this figure may not seem particularly large when viewed against the backdrop of nearly six million total voters in Michigan, it holds significant importance considering that Trump won Michigan by a margin of approximately ten thousand votes in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, and then lost the state to Biden by about one hundred thousand votes in 2020.

In this election, Trump, who has long implemented policies perceived as hostile towards Arabs and Muslims in his early immigration policies, aimed to garner support from Arab voters. A notable example of this was his attendance to receive direct backing from the Yemeni-origin mayor of Hamtramck. Furthermore, he entrusted his Arab son-in-law, Michael Masad Boulos, married to Trump's daughter Tiffany, with the task of coordinating Trump's electoral activities to engage with Arab Americans and Muslims. He also expressed his excitement about the arrival of his grandson, who will be half-Arab. Most importantly, Trump clearly stated that he would end the war in Gaza as soon as he won, even before his inauguration ceremony.

All these introductions have made Trump's stance on the Middle East a subject of global interest, particularly his perspective on the various crises in the region, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, tensions with Lebanon, and his firm position on Iran. There is a consensus that a second Trump administration would bring about a“significant shift” in American policy towards the region. However, there is no agreement on the specific nature of this policy. It is also widely acknowledged that Trump's domestic and foreign policies will radically transform during his second term. However, the question remains: what will this transformation entail?

Donald Trump is not an individual whose thought processes can be easily predicted. It is noteworthy that, despite his persistent efforts to garner support from Arab voters and his statements advocating for an end to the Gaza conflict, all of Trump's remarks regarding Middle Eastern issues prominently feature a clear endorsement of Israel and a hardline stance towards Iran. For instance, during one of his campaign rallies, Trump asserted that Prime Minister Netanyahu was on the right path because he disregarded Biden's advice.

Furthermore, according to The Economist, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to seek Trump's favor, being among the first world leaders to congratulate him, describing his return as“the greatest comeback in human history.” The publication indicates that Netanyahu believes a Trump administration will provide him with“full freedom to continue Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon,” noting that there will no longer be“annoying” American pressures demanding a ceasefire, despite President Biden's attempts being described as“largely ineffective” by the same source.

In addition, there are numerous policies from Trump's first term that he cannot reverse. An example of this is his rejection of the two-state solution and his proposal for the settlement known as the“Deal of the Century,” which was rejected by the Palestinians due to its failure to address permanent solutions to fundamental issues such as the return of refugees and the borders of 1967. Furthermore, the Trump administration viewed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through the lens of unprecedented support for Israel. This support was manifested in several controversial actions, most notably the relocation of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018, which was condemned by Palestinians and Arab nations and regarded as a move that complicates peace efforts.

Regarding the conflict in Lebanon, Trump expressed his support for Israel in its confrontations with the Lebanese Hezbollah, which he perceives as a threat to Israel's security and an ally of Iran. During his first term, Trump's policy focused on imposing stringent sanctions on Hezbollah and its supporters to diminish the party's influence in Lebanon and the region. This approach resulted in economic repercussions in Lebanon, affecting both institutions and individuals due to the American sanctions, thereby exacerbating tensions within the country, particularly given its fragile economic situation. It remains uncertain how Trump will manage his administration this time. While he has promised to“bring peace to Lebanon,” he has not clarified how this will be achieved. Analysts and observers are raising numerous scenarios and questions. Will Trump request Israel to withdraw its forces and agree to a ceasefire? Or will he support a large-scale“ground offensive” in hopes of eliminating Hezbollah once and for all?

Regarding Iran, the most contentious issue in the region, Trump's stance was resolute. He withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement in 2018, labeling it a“bad deal” that failed to ensure safety for the United States and its allies in the area. Trump imposed stringent economic sanctions on Iran, targeting vital sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, to undermine the Iranian economy and compel it to make greater concessions. He viewed Iran as a significant threat to stability in the Middle East due to its support for armed groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis in Yemen. Additionally, Trump sought to forge new alliances in the region, particularly among Gulf states and Israel, to counter the growing Iranian influence.

Overall, during his first term, Trump's policies toward the Middle East were characterized by recklessness and a tendency to support Israel while confronting Iran. This approach resulted in heightened tensions in the region and increased regional challenges. Most importantly, many of these policies are now irreversible as they conflict with American interests, particularly the support and empowerment of Israel in the Middle East.

Currently, we face two contrasting possibilities regarding this most controversial president in modern history. The first possibility, which we all hope for, is that Trump becomes more pragmatic and seeks to restore the credibility of the United States on the global stage. The second possibility, which represents a true nightmare, is that Trump's significant electoral victory, along with his party's control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, combined with this being his second and final term, may lead him to disregard his electoral promises, especially those concerning the cessation of wars and the resolution of conflicts.

Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and Writer

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