Israel-Iran On A Nine-Stage Path To War Of Annihilation

Accordingly, at stage four, the conflict parties resort to an“us v them” rhetoric in an attempt to build coalitions and attract support. Stage five, described as “loss of face” , is when one or other of the antagonists feels they have become tarnished in the eyes of the community as a whole.

Reputation no longer matters as much as achieving their ends. Sometimes, one side or the other commits an act that it feels has isolated it, which only serves to harden it position.

In stage six , threats or ultimatums are issued. This can lead to hostilities spiraling as the conflict parties seek credibility by putting a timescale on a threat, which in turn will heighten the pressure on both sides.

This can also bind another of the warring parties to a course of action from where there is little opportunity to retreat. This facilitates the move to stage seven, where the antagonists begin to trade the first limited blows in response to the threats they have made.

In stage eight , the offensive blows intensify, with the focus on trying to injure – or even destroy – the adversary's capacity for response or call into question the legitimacy of the other side's leader. Often this can lead to one or another of the parties fragmenting into warring factions, making the situation increasingly uncontrollable.

As the conflict hurtles into stage nine , the threat to one or another of the parties has become existential, who are now falling“together into the abyss.” All sense of caution is abandoned as the only goal is the total annihilation of the adversary, a state of total war.

After years of animosity and denunciation on both sides, the conflict between Israel and Iran has now progressed to the stage that both sides have exchanged limited blows against each other. Reports have linked Iran to the planning of the Hamas attack on October 7. Tehran has recently denied having any part in the massacre.

Hezbollah, which is more closely linked to the Islamic Republic, has carried out a year-long barrage of rockets from Lebanon into northern Israel. In response, Israel has now directly struck against Iran's proxy, invading southern Lebanon to engage and attempt to destroy Hezbollah.

Both sides clearly want to demonstrate their power and influence in the region. But the stakes could rise if Iran feels an urgent need to protect its proxies. For Israel, its leaders have long argued that its very existence is at stake.

In terms of Glasl's stages of escalation, the two countries appear to have reached stage seven , where they are launching limited blows against each other while avoiding direct confrontation. Both want to make their adversary consider whether the cost of continuing is worth the potential rewards that can be gained.

Iran's air attacks on Israel suggest that while Iran can see that its regional position is being threatened and is still seeking to support the non-state actors in Gaza and Lebanon, the way in which they have conducted their attacks suggest that Tehran does not feel itself powerful enough to escalate further than it already has.

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The only direct blows the two powers have launched against each other have been from the air. Iran has now launched two (large) barrages of rockets against Israel, one in April this year and again at the end of September . Both bombardments were announced in advance and neither has resulted in Israeli casualties.

Israel responded in April with a targeted strike against an Iranian airbase close to one of the country's nuclear installations. It has yet to directly respond to the latest Iranian barrage, but Netanyahu has said Israel would target Iran's military installations“based on Israel's national security needs.”

Analysts believe that both sides – so far at least – are using these limited strikes to signal their unwillingness to escalate. But there is a great deal at stake. Iran will feel its position as a regional power threatened by Israel's ground campaign in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Israel has repeatedly declared that it is fighting for the security of its people . Neither appears to want a wider conflict – and their allies certainly wouldn't encourage them if they did.

So it's clear that – up to now at least – neither Israel nor Iran wants to venture any further down the road to“the abyss” as envisaged by Glasl's nine-stage model.

Matthew Powell is teaching fellow in strategic and air power studies, University of Portsmouth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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