Sinking Feeling Engulfs China Submarine Program

The source says that the submarine's design, closely resembling the Type 093 Shang class, indicates it may be a development of this class, possibly the Type 093B. It mentions that the submarine's capabilities, including potential land-attack and anti-ship missions, fit into China's strategy for long-range offensive strike capabilities, targeting US Navy assets and distant land targets like US bases on Guam.

In explaining the contributory causes behind the mishap, Malte Humpert points out in a GCaptain article last month that it was likely caused by a lack of operational and technical experience, coupled with the cumulative effects of minor complacency issues. Humpert asserts that China's strict vertical chain of command probably exacerbated such issues, with permission becoming the priority over adaptability and empowerment.

Despite the recent setback, China's accelerated submarine production and naval modernization efforts continue to narrow the gap with the US, signaling an ongoing shift in the global balance of naval power.

In a June 2024 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank, Alexander Palmer and other writers mention China's submarine production capabilities have expanded significantly, showcasing its ambition to match or surpass the US in undersea warfare capacity.

According to Palmer and others, China has accelerated its shipbuilding programs, including through the development and construction of advanced nuclear-powered submarines. They note that China's naval modernization is proceeding faster than the US Navy's submarine construction efforts.

The writers mention that this progress includes the rapid production of submarines for the People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN), with a focus on both conventional and nuclear-powered models. They mention China's efforts include increasing its fleet of SSNs, which is essential for both strategic deterrence and sea denial capabilities.

Palmer and others note that the US has a qualitative edge in undersea warfare but faces a potential challenge from China's increasing number of submarines in the Indo-Pacific region.

However, corruption within China's defense industry, particularly in shipbuilding, severely challenges its ambitious naval modernization efforts, undermining the quality and reliability of its rapidly expanding submarine fleet.

In a 2021 article in the peer-reviewed Journal of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Yang Yi mentions that corruption in China's defense industry has become a pressing issue that is deeply ingrained within the structure of state military enterprises.

Yi asserts that since the 1980s, China's transition from a planned to a market economy, particularly in military enterprises, has fostered corruption. He mentions that this corruption is driven by monopolistic control, lack of transparency and intertwining corporate and political power.

He says that high-ranking executives in defense companies have often exploited their positions to embezzle state funds, as seen in high-profile cases like Anhui Industrial Group and AVIC Ltd, where officials were found to have manipulated company assets for personal gain.

According to Yi, a central issue is the“dual role” system, in which company executives also serve as Communist Party officials, creating conflicts of interest and making oversight difficult. Additionally, he says that secrecy around military contracts and limited market competition have further allowed corrupt practices to thrive.

While he mentions that Chinese President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign has resulted in numerous convictions, systemic issues, such as the intertwining of relationships (guanxi) and a lack of effective governance reforms, continue to hamper efforts to eradicate corruption in China's defense industry​.

Corruption in Chinese shipbuilding companies is a potential source of weakness in the country's naval modernization efforts. The issue raises concerns about the quality and reliability of naval vessels being produced.

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While China's defense industry struggles with corruption, the US faces workforce and industrial capacity challenges in building its submarine fleet. Such issues may place the US in the same boat as China, leaving it with shoddy, substandard warships riddled with safety and reliability concerns.

In a 2024 American Affairs article , Jerry Hendrix highlights significant challenges facing the US submarine production base, primarily due to workforce shortages and supply chain disruptions.

Hendrix says the US Navy's ambitious plans to expand its submarine fleet, including Virginia-class attack submarines and the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, are hindered by a lack of skilled labor and critical components.

He points out that the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated these issues, causing delays and increasing costs. Additionally, he says the US industrial base's capacity is strained by the simultaneous need to maintain and upgrade existing submarines.

Last month, USNI News reported significant concerns regarding the substandard workmanship on US Navy submarines and aircraft carriers. USNI mentions that critical welding flaws and defective parts have been discovered in several vessels, raising alarms about the potential impact on national security and operational readiness.

The source mentions that the USS Delaware, a Virginia-class submarine, and the USS Gerald R Ford, a Ford-class aircraft carrier, are among the affected vessels. Previous investigations have uncovered widespread issues with welding quality, including improper techniques and the use of wrong materials in US warships.

USNI says that in response to those findings, the US Navy has initiated a comprehensive review of its quality control processes and is working closely with contractors to address the issues.

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