(MENAFN- PR Newswire)
New Orders and Backlogs Contracting; Production and Employment Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Slowing; Raw Materials Inventories Expanding; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Contracting
TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August
for the fifth consecutive month and the 21st time in the last 22 months , say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM ®
Report On Business ®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management®
(ISM®)
Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
"The Manufacturing PMI®
registered 47.2 percent in August, up 0.4 percentage point from the 46.8 percent recorded in July. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 52nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI®
above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 44.6 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than the 47.4 percent recorded in July. The August reading of the Production Index (44.8 percent) is 1.1 percentage points lower than July's figure of 45.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 54 percent, up 1.1 percentage points compared to the reading of 52.9 percent in July. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.6 percent, up 1.9 percentage points compared to 41.7 in July. The Employment Index registered 46 percent, up 2.6 percentage points from July's figure of 43.4 percent.
"The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slowing deliveries, registering 50.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the 52.6 percent recorded in July. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 50.3 percent, up 5.8 percentage points compared to July's reading of 44.5 percent.
"The New Export Orders Index reading of 48.6 percent is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 49 percent registered in July. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory in August, registering 49.6 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 48.6 percent reported in July."
Fiore continues, "While still in contraction territory, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted slower compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative. Demand slowing was reflected by the (1) New Orders Index dropping further into contraction, (2) New Export Orders Index contracting slightly faster, (3) Backlog of Orders Index remaining in strong contraction territory, and (4) Customers' Inventories Index at the 'just right' level. (For more, see the Customers' Inventories Index summary below.) Output
(measured by the Production and Employment indexes) continued in moderate contraction with production sagging further, while employment contracted slower as compared to July. Panelists' companies reduced production levels month over month as head-count reductions continued in August. Inputs - defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports - generally continued to accommodate future demand growth, with inventory growth attributed to a supply demand timing mismatch.
"Demand remains subdued, as companies show an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current federal monetary policy and election uncertainty. Production execution was down compared to July, putting additional pressure on profitability. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages not as severe. Sixty-five percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in August, down from 86 percent in July. The share of manufacturing sector GDP registering a composite PMI®
calculation at or below 45 percent (a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness) was 33 percent in August, a 20-percentage point improvement compared to the 53 percent reported in July. Two of the six of the largest manufacturing industries - Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products
- expanded in August, compared to none in July," says Fiore.
The five manufacturing industries reporting growth in August are: Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
The 12 industries reporting contraction in August - in the following order - are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
"A noticeable slowdown in business activity. Staffing and production rationalization has been triggered. Previous optimism about future growth has been dashed." [Chemical Products]
"Backlog has dropped in half as invoicing remains strong, but orders have slowed significantly. Hoping to see orders pick back up for the fourth quarter and into 2025 but expect third quarter to remain slow for incoming orders." [Transportation Equipment]
"After a slow start and lower year-over-year sales volume during the first half of the year, we are now seeing a mild increase in year-over-year sales volume, along with more steady growth." [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
"Business outlook is good. Recovery from the electronics slowdown is strong for the second half of the year." [Computer & Electronic Products]
"New order intake is sluggish at best. Interestingly, even though orders are down, inquiries are up. Customers have indicated capital has been approved for equipment purchases, but they were directed to put projects on hold until the fourth quarter of 2024. This indicates the uncertainty around the election. We anticipate a strong end of the year, with a rise in backlog going into 2025." [Machinery]
"Our order levels are on a slow, steady decline; it looks like the trend will continue through the end of the year. We are downsizing through attrition and not hiring backfills, but there have been no layoffs to date. The bright spot is a few customer programs have helped increase orders for parts, resulting in some production areas to be very busy while others have little work. Redeploying people where we can." [Fabricated Metal Products]
"New orders continue to be strong, and inventories are slightly down as a result. Supplier lead times seem to be creeping back up in certain categories." [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
"Business is cooling down, and we don't expect a rebound until after the election is over. As we build our 2025 budget, we continue to have deep concerns about the added environmental costs on energy." [Paper Products]
"Order book remains strong for now. We are preparing for a slowdown in
U.S. auto sales. We are running overtime to keep pace, as hiring hourly employees has been difficult. Some walk off the job within hours because they cannot handle factory work." [Primary Metals]
"High interest rates are curtailing consumer spending on large discretionary spending for furniture, cabinetry, flooring and decorative trim, which has affected our industry sales potential. At the same time, pent-up demand seems to be growing for housing and remodeling. Interest rate cuts may not happen soon enough to have an impact this year." [Wood Products]
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE August 2024 |
Index |
Series Index Aug |
Series Index Jul |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of Change |
Trend* (Months) |
Manufacturing PMI® |
47.2 |
46.8 |
+0.4 |
Contracting |
Slower |
5 |
New Orders |
44.6 |
47.4 |
-2.8 |
Contracting |
Faster |
5 |
Production |
44.8 |
45.9 |
-1.1 |
Contracting |
Faster |
3 |
Employment |
46.0 |
43.4 |
+2.6 |
Contracting |
Slower |
3 |
Supplier Deliveries |
50.5 |
52.6 |
-2.1 |
Slowing |
Slower |
2 |
Inventories |
50.3 |
44.5 |
+5.8 |
Growing |
From Contracting |
1 |
Customers' Inventories |
48.4 |
45.8 |
+2.6 |
Too Low |
Slower |
9 |
Prices |
54.0 |
52.9 |
+1.1 |
Increasing |
Faster |
8 |
Backlog of Orders |
43.6 |
41.7 |
+1.9 |
Contracting |
Slower |
23 |
New Export Orders |
48.6 |
49.0 |
-0.4 |
Contracting |
Faster |
3 |
Imports |
49.6 |
48.6 |
+1.0 |
Contracting |
Slower |
3 |
OVERALL ECONOMY |
Growing |
Faster |
52 |
Manufacturing Sector |
Contracting |
Slower |
5 |
Manufacturing ISM ®
Report On Business®
data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum* (9); Corrugate (2); Corrugated Boxes (2); Electrical Components (4); Labor - Temporary; Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies; Ocean Freight (4); Paper Products (2); Plastic Products; Plastic Resins (8); Polyethylene Resin; Polypropylene Resin (2); Road Freight; and Steel*.
Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum*; Copper (2); Electricity; Natural Gas (2); Packaging Products; Solvents; Steel* (4); Steel - Cold Rolled; Steel - Hot Rolled (4); and Steel Products (3).
Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (47); Electrical Equipment (2); Electronic Components (5); Hydraulic Components (2); and Pigments.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
AUGUST
2024
MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month in August, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 percent, up 0.4 percentage point compared to July's reading of 46.8 percent. "After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction by expanding in March, the manufacturing sector has contracted the last five months, but at a slower rate in August. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, only one (Supplier Deliveries) was in expansion territory, the same as in July. The New Orders Index remained in contraction and moved downward in August.
Two of the six biggest manufacturing industries (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) registered growth," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A Manufacturing PMI®
above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.
Therefore, the August Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew for the 52nd straight month after last contracting in April 2020. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the August
reading (47.2 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.3 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month |
Manufacturing PMI® |
Month |
Manufacturing PMI® |
Aug 2024 |
47.2 |
Feb 2024 |
47.8 |
Jul 2024 |
46.8 |
Jan 2024 |
49.1 |
Jun 2024 |
48.5 |
Dec 2023 |
47.1 |
May 2024 |
48.7 |
Nov 2023 |
46.6 |
Apr 2024 |
49.2 |
Oct 2023 |
46.9 |
Mar 2024 |
50.3 |
Sep 2023 |
48.6 |
Average for 12 months – 48.1 High – 50.3 Low – 46.6 |
New Orders
ISM®'s New Orders Index contracted in August for the fifth consecutive month, registering 44.6 percent, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points compared to July's figure of 47.4 percent. The New Orders Index hasn't indicated consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. "Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only one (Computer & Electronic Products) reported increased new orders. Panelists noted a continued level of uncertainty and concern about a lack of new order activity - with a 1-to-1.6 ratio of positive comments versus those expressing concern - and their confidence in the future economic environment remains at its lowest levels since the coronavirus pandemic recovery," says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.3
percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in August are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
The 11 industries reporting a decline in new orders in August - in the following order - are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
New Orders |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
16.7 |
57.1 |
26.2 |
-9.5 |
44.6 |
Jul 2024 |
19.0 |
53.0 |
28.0 |
-9.0 |
47.4 |
Jun 2024 |
20.3 |
59.1 |
20.6 |
-0.3 |
49.3 |
May 2024 |
19.0 |
57.4 |
23.6 |
-4.6 |
45.4 |
Production
The Production Index continued in contraction territory in August, registering 44.8 percent, 1.1
percentage points lower than the July
reading of 45.9 percent. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only
Computer & Electronic Products
reported increased production. The index is at its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 34.2 percent. "Panelists' companies reduced output levels compared to July. New order rates remain weak, and backlog levels continue to decline. Companies continue to avoid investing in inventory due to the current economic uncertainty," says Fiore. An index above
52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.
The three industries reporting growth in production during the month of August are: Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in August, in order, are: Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Eight industries reported no change in production in August as compared to July.
Production |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
12.6 |
66.2 |
21.2 |
-8.6 |
44.8 |
Jul 2024 |
15.2 |
60.1 |
24.7 |
-9.5 |
45.9 |
Jun 2024 |
22.8 |
56.9 |
20.3 |
+2.5 |
48.5 |
May 2024 |
19.8 |
62.6 |
17.6 |
+2.2 |
50.2 |
Employment
ISM®'s Employment Index registered 46 percent in August, 2.6 percentage points higher than the July reading of 43.4 percent. The July and August readings are among the four lowest recorded since the index registered 43.7 percent in July 2020, early in the economic recovery; the others are 45.9 percent in February and 45 percent in July 2023. "The index contracted for the third consecutive month after an expansion in May, which broke a seven-month streak of contraction. Of the six big manufacturing sectors
only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products
expanded employment in August, primarily due to seasonality factors. Respondents' companies are continuing to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes. Sentiment in August indicated continued staff reductions compared to July, supported by the approximately 1-to-1.2 ratio of hiring versus head-count reduction comments," says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3
percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the three industries reporting employment growth in August are: Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in August, in the following order, are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
Employment |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
10.0 |
70.9 |
19.1 |
-9.1 |
46.0 |
Jul 2024 |
9.8 |
68.7 |
21.5 |
-11.7 |
43.4 |
Jun 2024 |
16.8 |
66.1 |
17.1 |
-0.3 |
49.3 |
May 2024 |
17.1 |
69.0 |
13.9 |
+3.2 |
51.1 |
Supplier Deliveries†
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was marginally slower in August, with the Supplier Deliveries Index registering 50.5 percent, a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 52.6 percent reported in July.
This is the second month of slower deliveries after four consecutive months of faster deliveries. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory the following month and remained there until February. Of the six big industries, three (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported slower supplier deliveries in August. "Supplier deliveries are stabilizing as panelists' companies continue to rely on their suppliers to manage their purchased material inventories, putting strain on the supply chain," says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The eight manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in August - listed in order - are:
Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in August are: Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Chemical Products.
Supplier Deliveries |
%Slower |
%Same |
%Faster |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
10.1 |
80.7 |
9.2 |
+0.9 |
50.5 |
Jul 2024 |
11.7 |
81.7 |
6.6 |
+5.1 |
52.6 |
Jun 2024 |
8.8 |
82.0 |
9.2 |
-0.4 |
49.8 |
May 2024 |
6.2 |
85.3 |
8.5 |
-2.3 |
48.9 |
Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 50.3 percent
in August, up a substantial 5.8 percentage points compared to the reading of
44.5 percent reported in July. "Manufacturing inventories grew as a result of panelists' companies adjusting to lower new output levels and the subsequent timing issues. Of the six big industries, five (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) reported increased manufacturing inventories in August," says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4
percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
Of 18 manufacturing industries, eight reported higher inventories in August, in the following order:
Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The seven industries reporting lower inventories in August
- in the following order - are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery.
Inventories |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
18.7 |
64.7 |
16.6 |
+2.1 |
50.3 |
Jul 2024 |
12.2 |
63.3 |
24.5 |
-12.3 |
44.5 |
Jun 2024 |
11.3 |
67.9 |
20.8 |
-9.5 |
45.4 |
May 2024 |
14.4 |
66.4 |
19.2 |
-4.8 |
47.9 |
Customers' Inventories†
ISM®'s Customers' Inventories Index registered 48.4 percent in August, up 2.6 percentage points compared to the 45.8 percent reported in July. "Customers' inventory levels decreased at a slower rate in August, with the index moving upward to approach the lower end of 'just right' territory. This means panelists are reporting their companies' customers have adequate (or just right) amounts of their products in inventory compared to the previous month, suggesting a demand level that is typically neutral for future new orders and production," says Fiore.
The four industries reporting customers' inventories as too high in August are: Textile Mills; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.
The six industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in August, in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Seven industries reported no change in customers' inventories in August as compared to July.
Customers' Inventories |
% Reporting |
%Too High |
%About Right |
%Too Low |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
77 |
12.3 |
72.2 |
15.5 |
-3.2 |
48.4 |
Jul 2024 |
79 |
13.5 |
64.5 |
22.0 |
-8.5 |
45.8 |
Jun 2024 |
78 |
13.6 |
67.5 |
18.9 |
-5.3 |
47.4 |
May 2024 |
75 |
14.8 |
66.9 |
18.3 |
-3.5 |
48.3 |
Prices†
The ISM® Prices Index registered 54 percent, 1.1
percentage points higher compared to the July
reading of 52.9 percent,
indicating raw materials prices increased in August for the eighth straight month after eight consecutive months of decreases.
Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four - Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment
- reported price increases in August. "The Prices Index indicated expansion in August, at a faster rate compared to the previous month. Commodity prices continue to be volatile, especially oil, natural gas, aluminum, corrugate, freight transportation and plastic resins. Steel prices remain at historical lows. Twenty-one percent of companies reported higher prices in August, compared to 23 percent in July," says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8
percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
In August, the nine industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.
The six industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in August, in order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Machinery.
Prices |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
21.4 |
65.2 |
13.4 |
+8.0 |
54.0 |
Jul 2024 |
22.6 |
60.5 |
16.9 |
+5.7 |
52.9 |
Jun 2024 |
20.2 |
63.8 |
16.0 |
+4.2 |
52.1 |
May 2024 |
25.5 |
63.0 |
11.5 |
+14.0 |
57.0 |
Backlog of Orders †
ISM®'s Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.6 percent, a gain of 1.9 percentage points compared to the July reading of 41.7 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 23rd consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only Computer & Electronic Products reported expanded order backlogs in August. "The index remained in contraction in August, as lower new order and production rates were insufficient to allow backlogs to grow," says Fiore.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the only one reporting growth in order backlogs in August is Computer & Electronic Products. The 11 industries reporting lower backlogs in August - in the following order - are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals.
Backlog of Orders |
% Reporting |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
91 |
13.1 |
61.0 |
25.9 |
-12.8 |
43.6 |
Jul 2024 |
91 |
12.9 |
57.5 |
29.6 |
-16.7 |
41.7 |
Jun 2024 |
90 |
10.7 |
61.9 |
27.4 |
-16.7 |
41.7 |
May 2024 |
91 |
12.3 |
60.1 |
27.6 |
-15.3 |
42.4 |
New Export Orders†
ISM®'s New Export Orders Index registered 48.6 percent
in August, down 0.4 percentage point from July's
reading of 49 percent. "The New Export Orders Index reading indicates that export orders contracted for a third month after expanding in May and contracting in April, with two straight months of expansion before that. New export orders remain sluggish as international trading partners continue to struggle with weak economies," says Fiore.
The six industries reporting growth in new export orders in August - in the following order - are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in August - in the following order - are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment.
New Export Orders |
% Reporting |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
74 |
7.2 |
82.8 |
10.0 |
-2.8 |
48.6 |
Jul 2024 |
74 |
8.9 |
80.2 |
10.9 |
-2.0 |
49.0 |
Jun 2024 |
73 |
10.3 |
76.9 |
12.8 |
-2.5 |
48.8 |
May 2024 |
72 |
10.0 |
81.1 |
8.9 |
+1.1 |
50.6 |
Imports†
ISM®'s Imports Index continued to indicate cooling in August with a reading of 49.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to July's figure of 48.6 percent. "Imports contracted for the third month in a row after five consecutive months of expansion preceded by 14 consecutive months of contraction. Respondents' companies have limited their investments in inventory, as growth prospects remain unclear. Ocean freight costs continue to rise, and access to equipment remains challenged," says Fiore.
The six industries reporting an increase in import volumes in August - in the following order - are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
The seven industries that reported lower volumes of imports in August, in order, are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.
Imports |
% Reporting |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Aug 2024 |
84 |
10.1 |
78.9 |
11.0 |
-0.9 |
49.6 |
Jul 2024 |
84 |
9.8 |
77.5 |
12.7 |
-2.9 |
48.6 |
Jun 2024 |
83 |
8.7 |
79.6 |
11.7 |
-3.0 |
48.5 |
May 2024 |
85 |
14.8 |
72.6 |
12.6 |
+2.2 |
51.1 |
†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
The average
commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in August
was
167
days, a decrease of 10 days compared to July. Average lead time in August for Production Materials
was 79 days, an increase of two days compared to July. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies
was 43 days, a decrease of three days compared to July.
Percent Reporting |
Capital Expenditures |
Hand-to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
Aug 2024 |
16 |
5 |
11 |
12 |
30 |
26 |
167 |
Jul 2024 |
16 |
3 |
7 |
14 |
32 |
28 |
177 |
Jun 2024 |
14 |
3 |
11 |
14 |
28 |
30 |
179 |
May 2024 |
15 |
3 |
9 |
15 |
32 |
26 |
172 |
|
Percent Reporting |
Production Materials |
Hand-to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
Aug 2024 |
6 |
29 |
26 |
26 |
9 |
4 |
79 |
Jul 2024 |
7 |
29 |
25 |
27 |
8 |
4 |
77 |
Jun 2024 |
8 |
24 |
27 |
28 |
9 |
4 |
80 |
May 2024 |
6 |
26 |
31 |
23 |
10 |
4 |
80 |
|
Percent Reporting |
MRO Supplies |
Hand-to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
Aug 2024 |
30 |
35 |
20 |
11 |
3 |
1 |
43 |
Jul 2024 |
28 |
35 |
19 |
13 |
4 |
1 |
46 |
Jun 2024 |
29 |
36 |
16 |
14 |
5 |
0 |
43 |
May 2024 |
29 |
38 |
15 |
13 |
4 |
1 |
44 |
About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2024.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM®
makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data
should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM®
Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industries' contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI®
is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI®
reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI®
above 42.5
percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.5
percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.5
percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline.
With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.
The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.
ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® ("ISM") Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.
Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.
You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing [email protected] . Subject: Content Request.
ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, Manufacturing PMI®, Services PMI®, Hospital PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.
About Institute for Supply Management ® (ISM®)
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and assessments. The ISM® Report On Business®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: .
The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
is posted on ISM®'s website at on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January when the report is released on the second business day of the month.
The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring September 2024
data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, October 1, 2024.
*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
Contact: |
Kristina Cahill |
|
Report On Business® Analyst |
|
ISM®, ROB/Research Manager |
|
Tempe, Arizona |
|
+1 480.455.5910 |
|
Email: [email protected] |
SOURCE Institute for Supply Management
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