Putin Visit A Delicate Balancing Act For Neutral Mongolia

Yet Putin's visit now – the first he has made to the country since 2019 – poses a challenge for Mongolia as it seeks to balance its obligations to the Western-led international order , of which the ICC is a part, with Ulaanbaatar's desire to stay friends with its powerful neighbors.

Few things demonstrate this diplomatic tightrope walk like Mongolia's membership in the ICC, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin over his alleged role in the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Ukraine has urged Mongolia to detain Putin, citing the ICC's founding treaty, the Rome Statute , which instructs member countries to take action if subjects to a court warrant enter their territory.

However, the ICC lacks an effective enforcement mechanism, and member states may also be exempt from carrying out arrests if doing so conflicts with certain treaty obligations or diplomatic immunity offered to another party.

Putin's visit is expected to demonstrate how little can be done to rein in Moscow. Given the power imbalance between the states, Mongolia will likely show just how far it is willing to go to accommodate its powerful neighbor.

For almost 70 years, Mongolia was closely allied with the Soviet Union. But the fall of communism and subsequent geopolitical reorientation of the post-Cold War order forced the country to alter its economic and political relations.

In so doing, Mongolia became the only former communist state in Asia to adopt a democratic political system and open economy . It won favor with the US and other Western countries who embraced the country as a role model for the region.

Putin's expected trip is but the latest in a series of recent high-profile state visits as Mongolia seeks to maintain close relations with its neighbors, while also expanding partnerships with other nations.

So far in 2024, Mongolia has received heads of state or foreign ministers from the US, Slovenia, the Philippines, Belarus, the United Kingdom and Germany. In 2023, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene traveled to the US and met with Vice President Kamala Harris , and to China to see President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.

Both French President Emmanuel Macron and Pope Francis have recently visited Ulaanbaatar.

While soft power efforts have won Ulaanbaatar goodwill and friends around the globe, they do not trump geography. Landlocked between Russia and China, Mongolia remains vulnerable to the whims of its two giant neighbors.

Mongolia is dependent on Russia for almost all its gasoline and diesel supplies and a substantial part of its electricity. Further, due to a legacy agreement from the Soviet era , Russia retains 50% ownership in several key infrastructure and mining projects in Mongolia. In particular, Russia is a partner in the Mongolian railway system , which has grown in importance as a trade corridor between China and Russia, and China and Europe.

Mongolia fears that its fuel supplies and transportation network will be disrupted if Russia prioritizes its own energy needs in the midst of war over the interests of its neighbors, however deep those ties may be.

Similarly, Mongolia is dependent on China for the majority of its non-energy imports, including food, consumer and industrial products. And China is the destination for 90% of Mongolia's exports, primarily coal and copper.

Both Russia and China have used their economic and political muscle as leverage over Mongolia in the past due to perceived slights, such as China's disruption of trade and of a key loan in 2016 in protest of a visit to Mongolia by the Dalai Lama .

Mongolia and other states in Central Asia face new challenges as Russia and China grow closer politically and economically .

Mongolia played the role of a buffer state between the Soviet Union and China for much of the 20th century, and counted on the rivalry between the two superpowers to gain and maintain its independent status.

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But the growing friendship between China and Russia – highlighted by Putin and Xi's declaration of a“no limits” partnership in February 2022, just days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine – raises the question whether China and Russia will begin to act in concert to gain even more leverage over Mongolia and other smaller states in region.

It is these geopolitical concerns that Ulaanbaatar may be fixated upon during Putin's visit. Even as Mongolia has been affected by the sanctions placed on Russia, seeing transportation and business links disrupted , the country has steered clear of confrontations with Moscow in international settings.

Along with China, Mongolia routinely abstains from United Nations resolutions condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But in a sign that Mongolia remains committed to its third neighbor policy, it has also been careful not to violate the sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies.

While Mongolia recognizes the importance of Putin's visit to maintain good ties and the flow of fuel to the country, it will also be concerned with how the visit and its anticipated non-enforcement of ICC sanctions will hurt the country's standing with global institutions and powers outside the region.

In a shifting world order, Mongolia is working hard to maintain independence by emphasizing its role as a neutral state and friend to all. But visits such as Putin's show how difficult that endeavor can be.

Christopher K. Tong is an associate professor of Asian Studies at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County . Charles Krusekopf is a professor of business at Royal Roads University .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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