China Keeps Pressure On Philippines Despite US Ally

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Four Chinese PLA Navy vessels took turns tailing the allied flotilla consisting of four ships – two Philippine, one American and one French – that were conducting multilateral maritime exercises in the South China Sea.
While Balikatan was underway, a new incident happened in Scarborough Shoal. Two Philippine government vessels suffered damage from ramming and water cannons by three Chin Coast Guard ships. That came on the heels of a March episode wherein a Philippine civilian boat contracted by the military was likewise subjected to high-pressure water blasting by two Chinese coast guard ships.
The expectation that Balikatan, especially with the presence of foreign navies, would compel China to behave properly and restrain from taking assertive actions fumbled. The latest sea incident was denounced by several countries. But beyond flouting international law and reputational costs, China's defiance made a strong statement: The upgraded exercise no longer deters Beijing, nor does Manila's transparency drive in the contested sea.
Will this trigger the alliance to calibrate response? Injuries to sailors and damage to property and all, Chinese actions still do not meet the definition of“armed attack” necessary to trigger much-vaunted US pledges of ironclad commitment to its junior ally. The Scarborough Shoal water blasting affair may embolden China to push the envelope further. More untoward instances, in turn, may erode trust in the alliance's ability to push back beyond rhetorical denunciations.
A more expansive and evolved Balikatan is part of the Philippines' approach of deepening defense relations with the US and other partners to ward off China. Failure to get satisfactory results may force a rethink. This may play into China's desire to diminish Manila's strong bond with its former colonizer and longtime treaty ally and exclude non-regional powers from the intractable sea row.
Yet, close calls and all, disputants still tolerate further risk. Manila remains headstrong with its exposé of Chinese activities in contested waters and taking part in combined activities with allies and partners. Diplomatic protests are piling up with no foreseen high-level dialogue with Beijing.
In marked contrast, American and Chinese defense chiefs met on the sidelines of this year's Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore last month, the first since 2022. It is part of a series of high-level official contacts to try to stabilize ties between the two rivals as the US heads to elections late in the year.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken went to China in quick succession last April. Blinken's trip coincided with the early days of Balikatan.

The South China Sea is only one of the many thorny issues that divide the two major powers and may not even be the most pressing one. On the other hand, Beijing is not backing down and continues to up pressure against its smaller neighbor even in the presence of its big ally.
If China's response to this year's Balikatan shows the limits of deterrence, the South China Sea may be in for more turbulence.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies and a research fellow at Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation.