Is Russia Readying A Nuke To Blow Up Starlink?

In October 2022, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Chinese military scientists at the Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology simulated a nuclear blast in near space that could turn off satellites like Elon Musk's Starlink.

Their simulation shows that a 10-megaton warhead detonated at an altitude of 80 kilometers could create a radioactive cloud, potentially crippling LEO satellites. The simulation suggests such a blast could be a targeted trap for enemy satellites while minimizing risk to friendly spacecraft.

A space explosion wouldn't create a cloud due to lack of air. High-energy particles would be captured by Earth's magnetic field and spread as a radiation belt, endangering spacecraft. This effect arguably makes nuclear weapons too risky for ASAT missions.

However, in a near-space atmospheric explosion, the resulting debris cloud would have a total mass larger than the bomb, amplifying the effects of gamma rays and beta particles against spacecraft and communications.

A near-space atmospheric explosion ensures that falling air molecules would reduce the risk to other satellites or spacecraft, avoiding the radiation belt effect.

The decisive effect of satellite constellations such as Starlink in the ongoing Ukraine war has prompted major military powers to invest in satellite constellation technology and accelerate efforts to develop countermeasures.

In a June 2022 Politico article , Christopher Miller and other writers mention that Starlink has become a crucial communication tool for Ukrainian forces by enabling artillery coordination and allowing them to maintain contact with superiors and family despite local network disruptions.

Miller and others say that Starlink has undermined Russia's attempts to isolate Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and others to stay connected with the world and thwarting Russian President Vladimir Putin's disinformation campaign.

They note Starlink has shown adaptability and resilience by both supporting military operations and providing civilians in besieged areas a way to communicate.

US near-peer adversaries Russia and China have noted Starlink's capabilities and in response made veiled threats to destroy the satellite constellation including through the development of ASAT capabilities.

In October 2022, Reuters reported that
Russia has cautioned that US and allied commercial satellites could be targeted if they are used to support Ukraine's war effort.

Konstantin Vorontsov, deputy director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control, has criticized the West's use of space to assert dominance and support Ukraine.

Without explicitly mentioning Starlink, Vorontsov mentioned that“quasi-civilian” space infrastructure aiding Ukraine could be subject to retaliatory strikes.

In the same vein, SCMP reported in May 2022 that Chinese military researchers affiliated with the Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunications under the since rebranded People's Liberation Army-Strategic Support Force (PLA-SSF) have voiced concerns about Starlink posing a national security threat to China and emphasized the need for ASAT capabilities.

They highlighted the need for a surveillance system to track every Starlink satellite and suggested combining“soft and hard kill methods” to disrupt the Starlink constellation.

While Russia and China have explicitly and implicitly threatened to destroy Starlink, using a nuclear ASAT weapon may be an impractical way to do so, with such weapons offering more coercive and deterrent value than actual military advantage.

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In a March 2024 King's College London article , Malcolm Davis mentions that a nuclear ASAT weapon attack downing multiple satellites can cripple everything from internet access to communications, positioning, navigation and timing, Earth observation, critical information services and supply chains, as there is no way to harden satellites against such an attack.

He points out that such an attack, coupled with cyberattacks and submarine attacks on underwater Internet cables, could be the first shot in a future high-intensity war.

Contradicting the Chinese scientists' simulation of a near-space nuclear ASAT attack resulting in limited collateral damage, Davis says that a Russian high-altitude nuclear ASAT attack would indiscriminately destroy Russian satellites as well.

In an ironic twist, Davis points out that Russia is reportedly also using Starlink in Ukraine . He says that Russia's threat to use nuclear ASAT weapons implies the weakness of its conventional military, which has taken severe losses in the ongoing Ukraine War.

In his view, the purpose of Russia's nuclear ASAT weapons is to coerce through implicit threat rather than actual use by threatening the destruction of Western social cohesion while avoiding the risks of using nuclear weapons on Earth.

As such, he notes that nuclear ASAT weapons may be a highly threatening coercive tool but in the end not a practical weapon. However, he emphasizes that the potential damage they can do cannot be ignored and that their deployment would erode laws and norms such as the 1967 Outer Space Treaty barring the militarization of space.