China's AI-Powered Satellites Imperil US Aircraft Carriers

In May 2022, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that a Chinese AI-powered satellite detected and tracked the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier during a state transit drill off the coast of Long Island, New York, providing Beijing real-time coordinates of the carrier's location.

The SCMP report notes that the satellite's AI could process high-definition images rapidly, identifying military assets with minimal computational resources. It says that despite limitations in space, including processing power and harsh conditions, Chinese scientists have made breakthroughs in AI“weight reduction” and chip resilience.

In a February 2023 Epoch Times article , Mike Fredenburg notes that these capabilities imply that China can now scan vast swathes of the ocean to automatically detect and identify ships, provide real-time targeting data to missile launch facilities and significantly improve its ability to maintain the“kill chains” necessary to attack carriers and other warships at sea.

Fredenburg notes that China's rapid advances in the quality and quantity of its imaging satellites exemplify its civil-military integration (CMI) and military-civil fusion (MCF) through the development of advanced dual-use technologies.

He notes that while the US has more satellites in orbit than China, US satellites are older on average, with many nearing the end of their service lives. In contrast, he says that China's satellites, while fewer in number, are newer, more capable and designed with specific military uses in mind.

Such ISR capabilities would be vital for China's strategic anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, which would deter US and allied intervention in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

In May 2023, Asia Times reported that researchers from the North University of China conducted a simulation where China used hypersonic missiles to sink the USS Gerald Ford and its escorts. The simulation involved a three-wave attack with 24 missiles, resulting in the depletion of the US fleet's interceptor missiles.

Two types of hypersonic missiles, with ranges of 2,000 and 4,000 kilometers, were fired in three waves. At the same time, the simulation highlighted the potential impact of hypersonic weapons on naval warfare and the importance of ISR capabilities in missile attacks against major naval combatants.

These satellite-powered developments have sparked debates about the relevance of aircraft carriers in future near-peer conflicts. In February 2023, Asia Times noted that space-based ISR and hypersonic weapons may have made aircraft carriers obsolete, though they are still being built for political and prestige reasons in both the US and China.

However, the April 2022 sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles underscored the vulnerability of large warships against anti-ship missiles. Along those lines, China has been practicing hitting US aircraft carriers and warships with hypersonic missiles, as evidenced by satellite photos of mockups and impact craters at its Taklamakan test facility in Xinjiang.

China's rising capabilities may push the US' multibillion-dollar carriers into limited combat roles in permissive operational environments. That, in turn, could raise important questions among defense policymakers about the rationale of building a few expensive but highly vulnerable warships.

To be sure, the continuing need for a mobile airbase for power projection may ensure that the aircraft carrier concept lives on, albeit in a different form.

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While the US has considered building“lighting carriers” – small carriers that can be built quicker and in more significant numbers with the capacity to carry 20 combat jets versus a supercarrier's 50 or more jets – they may be just as vulnerable as their larger counterparts while suffering from an offense-defense dilemma.

Another approach would be to disperse an aircraft carrier's capabilities by equipping more naval combatants with low-cost, expendable drones with various payloads.

In an article from The Warzone last month , Tyler Rogoway argues that adding numerous small, long-range drones to US Navy ships could significantly improve their ISR and strike capabilities.

Rogoway says that equipping existing Ticonderoga-class cruisers, Arleigh Burke destroyers and upcoming Constellation-class frigates with bolt-on common launch tubes (CLT) to launch low-cost drones offers a cost-effective way to increase a warship's combat flexibility and capabilities.

However, aging Ticonderoga cruisers and the Arleigh Burkes' maxed-out condition may make such upgrades impractical.

Alternatively, he notes that the ships' vertical launch systems (VLS) could be used to launch drones. A strike-length Mk 41 VLS cell holds 24 drones in a quad-pack configuration, potentially giving an Arleigh Burke destroyer nearly 100 drones with just four VLS tubes.

Rogoway says such drones can be used defensively to counter threats and offensively to strike targets at long range, providing a versatile addition to the ship's arsenal.

However, he points out that such an arrangement may take away valuable VLS for more capable weapons while one malfunctioning drone in a stack configuration may prevent the rest from launching.