Pyongyang's Pivot Back To Military Tensions

Kim Jong Un expressed support for Russia's war in Ukraine, saying Moscow 'will prevail' in its fight against what he described as“imperialists.” In April, Chinese leader Xi Jinping also expressed willingness to elevate bilateral ties with North Korea to a higher level by“strengthening the strategic communication and jointly guiding” the development of Beijing–Pyongyang relations.

Russia and China publicly displayed their support for North Korea in June when both ignored a US call to condemn Pyongyang's satellite launch and instead blamed Washington for raising tensions.

The most important partnership for North Korea this year has been with Russia. After Kim Jong Un hosted a Russian delegation in Pyongyang in July, the level of bilateral cooperation significantly deepened in September when he made a personal visit to Russia to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The two leaders agreed to expand cooperation in military and other fields, with the Russian leader expressing willingness to assist North Korea with its space program. In return, North Korea allegedly agreed to supply Russia with artillery for its war in Ukraine.

In October, South Korea, the United States and Japan confirmed and condemned several deliveries of North Korean weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine. While the United States accuses North Korea of supplying over 1000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Russia, Pyongyang denies the claims.

North Korean and Russian officials held talks again in November in Pyongyang to discuss further expanding cooperation in the fields of economy, science and technology. Trade with Russia has increased significantly since Kim's visit.

Chinese traders have also reportedly begun re-entering North Korea for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, although many remain wary of reinvesting in the country or expanding economic cooperation. Still, China will likely continue providing aid to North Korea.

Cooperation with Russia may already be paying off as Pyongyang succeeded in launchin g a satellite for the first time on November 23, 2023.

South Korea's intelligence service accused Russia of providing the necessary support to make the launch happen, with the Yoon government announcing the partial suspension of the 2018 inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement soon after the launch. The South Korean response marks a significant move in a risky direction.

Under the 2018 deal, North and South Korea had agreed to“cease all hostile acts '”along the border by imposing no-fly zones and maritime peace zones, removing guard posts, and halting propaganda activities among others. But now, the North has vowed to“withdraw the military steps taken to prevent military tension and conflict” while announcing plans to launch“several reconnaissance satellites in a short span of time.”

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Due to these recent developments, there is now a heightened risk of inadvertent border clashes and North Korea is more likely to engage in more provocative weapons tests, potentially including a nuclear test.

Amid the ongoing diplomatic stalemate, an opportunity presents itself with the upcoming 2024 US presidential elections. While a Biden re-election could lead to renewed nuclear testing, a Trump victory may result in revisiting diplomacy. The most important thing for Pyongyang is that the new US president adopts a marked change in North Korea policy – one that is open to concessions, arms control and setting the denuclearization issue aside.

With the sanctions regime effectively dead, North Korea is forming increasingly close partnerships with Russia and China and its military capabilities are rapidly improving. The suspension of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement shows that the peninsula's security situation is at risk of further deteriorating in 2024.

Gabriela Bernal is a PhD candidate at the University of North Korean Studies, Seoul.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum, which is based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy within the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National Universit y. The article is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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