Ukraine War: The Real Issue Is NATO And Russia

The Typhoon story is closely tied to
a proposal by the UK's relatively new defense minister Grant Shapps
to send UK troops to Ukraine to better train Ukrainian troops in situ and to help the Ukrainians prepare and execute its current offensive and the new one planned for the Dnieper river and Zaphorize.

The British defense minister also proposed to take an active naval role in the Black Sea against Russia. Britain is already
planning on sending UK fleet ships
to clear mines in the Black Sea put there by the Russians.

The introduction of uniformed UK troops into Ukraine would almost certainly be regarded by the Russians as a casus belli and would mean the expansion of the Ukraine war to Europe.

Apparently this message reached UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who walked back Shapps' proposal to send uniformed troops to Ukraine. Sunak, as yet, has not addressed either the possible Typhoon deployments nor British naval support for Ukraine in the Black Sea.

Meanwhile, the ground is starting to shift in Washington. Responding to US and European efforts to move defense production to Ukraine, Russia carried out at least five separate strikes on October 1, destroying Ukrainian military depots, retrofit and maintenance sites and manufacturing complexes.

Successful attacks
included targets in Cherkasy, Kryvyi Rih, Zaphorize (including the Motor Sich engine manufacturing company), Kostiantynivka and Kharkiv. Back in Washington discontent over supporting Ukraine is growing, with enough opposition to
force Ukrainian aid out of the Continuing Resolution
just passed to keep the US government running.

Some of the opposition reflects concern about rampant Ukrainian corruption. However, the bigger problem in Ukraine is a political struggle highlighted by the fact that the current commander in chief of Ukraine's army,
General Valerii Zaluzhny , is opposed to the plans for the Dnieper offensive that Zelensky and Washington are pushing.

Beyond that, in August and September Ukraine came nowhere near to drafting enough men and women into the army because of growing resistance. The
firing of recruiters , therefore, was not because of corruption (although there probably was some), but because of poor recruitment numbers.

There are various threats to Zaluzhny. The
BBC Ukrainian Service reported recently
that the Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) and the domestic intelligence agency, SBU, have launched a criminal investigation against Zaluzhny for the failure of the recent counteroffensive in the south.

This investigation could not happen without Zelensky's support. Zelensky has installed his own people in the SBU and uses it to arrest and harass his opponents.

Zaluzhny is regarded, even by the Russians, as an excellent commander. There are already growing attacks on Zaluzhny, blaming him for blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline (itself probably a CIA fabrication that did not directly blame Zaluzhny).

However, a criminal investigation aimed at his direct military leadership would be a severe blow to Ukraine's army and to Ukraine's ability to keep fighting.

Putting aside the cracks starting to show in Ukraine, the real issue remains whether Russia and NATO can make a deal, not just over Ukraine but over the security architecture in Europe.

The Russians believe that NATO expansion threatens them. Russian leaders also believe that along with the expansion of NATO and NATO bases comes the transfer of nuclear capabilities to the front line.

Russia is seeking a roll-back of NATO expansion, something that isn't remotely possible. However, finding a way to offset perceived offensive threats is potentially negotiable and would resemble, in some manner, arms control agreements that either are no longer relevant or have been abandoned, specially the
1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Force Agreement (INF)
which the Trump administration canceled in early 2019.

The US alleged Russian non-compliance, but some think that INF was canceled because it
restricted the US from competing against Chinese intermediate range nuclear weapons . China was never a party to the INF and has steadfastly opposed joining any serious arms limitations agreements.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

Ukraine cannot continue fighting for long without NATO support. On the surface, with EU and US politicians running to Kiev, one would assume that Ukraine will continue to get unlimited help from NATO.

But support on the level of the past year is hardly possible for structural reasons alone (the lack of supplies, for example). Moreover, Europe is growing weary because all of its interventions have not secured victory.

Germany, which was Europe's industrial powerhouse, is failing economically largely because
it lacks sufficient supplies of cheap energy,
mainly Russian gas. Sooner or later the Germans will have to face their economic and political future, probably sooner.

The prospect of a widened war also is beginning to dawn on the consciousness of Europe's leaders, if not in the US.

It would seem that if Ukraine under its current leaders spurns negotiations with Russia, NATO and Russia do not operate under any constraints, setting aside local political issues.

The Biden administration is unlikely to turn a page and open the door to diplomacy, but that can change if Ukraine suffers more military setbacks or the Ukrainian political structure crumbles.

While it can be said that Zelensky is in a trap from which he can't escape, Biden is running for re-election and wants to avoid being blamed for another catastrophe after Afghanistan . It is hard to predict exactly what events would drive Biden to the negotiating table, but he does have a choice and can escape a debacle if he chooses.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.

Like this:Like Loading...