(MENAFN- Tribal News Network) Iftikhar KhanMadad Khan, a 60-year-old farmer from sheikh Muhammadi, a suburb of Peshawar, recently harvested his wheat crop. The process was exhausting due to the heavy rain and hailstorms, but now he and other farmers have a few days of rest. However, despite producing 40 maunds of wheat, Madad Khan is frustrated and worried.
Untimely rains and hailstorms have damaged a significant portion of his wheat crop, resulting in lower production than expected. The rising prices of wheat and flour in the country add to his concerns. With a household of 25 people, his wheat supply is insufficient for the entire year, and purchasing more wheat has become unaffordable due to the price increase.
Madad Khan mentions that the price of wheat in nearby areas has reached up to 6,000 rupees per maund, double the price compared to last year. If not for the hailstorms, he might not have to buy additional wheat.
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The recent irregular rains and hailstorms in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) have caused severe damage to the wheat crop in various districts, including Madad Khan's district. According to the Department of Agriculture, the total wheat production this year is expected to be one lakh tons less than anticipated.
Impact of Rain and Hailstorms
The Crop Reporting Services of the Department of Agriculture in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provide data on the wheat crop. According to their information, wheat was cultivated on 19 lakh 31 thousand 12 acres of land in the province this year, with an expected production of 14 lakh metric tons. However, the harvesting season's heavy rains and hailstorms have caused an estimated loss of up to 100,000 metric tons. The most affected districts include DI Khan, Buner, Swat, Mardan, and Swabi.
Uzair Ahmed, a GIS Specialist at Crop Reporting Services, explains that satellite images and field visits confirm that more than 36,000 acres of land in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where wheat was cultivated, have been impacted by heavy rains and hailstorms. These districts are the primary sources of wheat production in the province, making the situation even more concerning.
Wheat Demand, Production, and Export Potential
The annual requirement of wheat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is 5 million metric tons, while the production ranges from 1.2 to 1.3 million metric tons per year. To meet the remaining 75% of the requirement, wheat is imported from Punjab and other countries.
There were hopes for increased production this year, but the rain and hailstorms have dashed those expectations. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised this year's wheat crop, stating that it was excellent and surpassed the past ten years' yields. The government's efforts to provide good quality seeds, consistent fertilizer supply, and timely assistance to farmers were acknowledged as contributing factors to the success.
Climate Change Challenges and Adaptation
Professor Inamullah from Peshawar Agricultural University's Department of Agronomy sheds light on the impact of climate change on wheat production. He emphasizes that recent erratic rains and hailstorms in KP during the wheat harvesting season are clear examples. In the past, heavy rains in April and May were uncommon, and farmers faced no issues in harvesting their crops. However, climate change has altered rainfall patterns.
Professor Inamullah explains that in recent years, there has been a shift in the timing of rains. Previously, October and November were the months when rain was needed for wheat sowing, but now there is either very little or no rain during that period. The rains have shifted to spring, which coincides with the formation of wheat grains. While rainfall is beneficial for wheat, excessive and prolonged rains, accompanied by severe hailstorms, can lead to destruction, as witnessed this year.
According to the Professor, another concerning aspect is the unpredictability of rainfall in March and April. Last year, wheat production was lower due to drought during the grain formation stage in those months. This year, the prolonged spell of rains and heavy hailstorms will impact overall output and grain quality.
He further explains that around 67% of the wheat cultivation area in KP during the Rabi season relies on rainfed agriculture. This means that the entire wheat crop in this area completely depends on timely rainfall, from sowing to grain formation. Any fluctuations in rainfall directly affect production.
Moreover, the effects of global warming caused by greenhouse gases also pose a significant concern for wheat and other agricultural sectors.
Threatened Districts in KP
Dr. Inamullah highlights that in the near future, the southern districts of KP may face the adverse effects of high temperatures on the wheat crop. As temperatures rise, the wheat in these regions may ripen prematurely, resulting in inadequate kernel formation.
According to the Crop Reporting Services of the Department of Agriculture, the districts with the highest wheat production in KP are DI Khan, followed by Swat, Mardan, and Swabi. Uzair Ahmed, an official from Crop Reporting, confirms that recent hailstorms have caused the most damage in the southern districts, particularly in DI Khan.
Addressing Climate Change Effects
Pakistan is geographically and climatically located in the subtropical zone, making it highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Although Pakistan's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is less than one percent, it is among the ten countries most affected by the negative consequences of climate change.
Mudd Khan, a farmer from Peshawar, believes that these untimely rains are beyond human control, and he attributes them to Allah Almighty. He expresses the possibility of abandoning wheat cultivation if similar rainfall patterns persist in the future.
Professor Inamullah emphasizes the need for changes in agricultural practices to mitigate the effects of climate change. While controlling global climate change at a local level is challenging, he suggests implementing measures to minimize its impact. Open-air agriculture, like wheat farming, is highly susceptible to climate-related disasters. However, the adverse effects can be reduced with appropriate measures and preparations.
To address climate change, Professor Inamullah proposes increasing the area under wheat cultivation during the Rabi season, especially with seeds that can thrive in severe and unpredictable weather conditions. Collaborative projects with China, such as those undertaken by the University of Agriculture Peshawar, aim to develop such seeds. However, major success in these projects is yet to be achieved.
By taking proactive steps and adapting farming practices to climate change, it is possible to protect the agricultural sector, including wheat production, from its adverse effects.
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