(MENAFN- ING) PBoC cuts RRR China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, cut its required reserve ratio by 25bp
to 10.75%. This
releases yuan liquidity of 500 billion.
Why does the PBoC need to inject liquidity in the money market during an on-track recovery?
The economic data is not as good as expected. Retail sales grew 3.5% year-on-year, year-to-date, which was slower than market expectations. But this was mainly driven by the discontinued subsidies for electric cars. We believe that the RRR cut will
hardly help to boost
EV sales.
However, the cut could help to lower market interest rates, which could help to lower bond issuance interest costs. This may benefit real estate property developers and local government financial vehicles for their funding needs.
Another reason for the cut, which should be a supplementary one,
could be to provide a cushion against any potential negative impact from global market turmoil. If foreign investors need cash and there are
sudden capital outflows from China,
there is at least some immediate cushion. Surely in such an event, the PBoC would
inject more liquidity into the market.
RRR cut should have negligible impact on USD/CNY
The CNY exchange rate usually follows the dollar index closely. This is especially true right now
when market players are watching the market very closely.
As such, this RRR cut should not affect the USD/CNY exchange rates to a
large extent. There might
be some softening of the yuan briefly. We keep our forecast of USD/CNY at 6.90 by the end of this quarter
We do not expect the PBoC to cut interest rates or the RRR any further in the first half of this year
unless global market conditions
become extreme,
as the economic recovery is on track.
MENAFN17032023000222011065ID1105805255
Author:
Iris Pang
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