(MENAFN- Trend News Agency)
The jump in revenues, if it materialises, will help shore up
Russia's economy in the face of waves of Western sanctions,
Trend reports
citing Reuters .
It will provide President Vladimir Putin with cash to fund
military spending or to boost wages and pensions at a time when the
economy has fallen into recession and inflation is eroding living
standards.
But the boom in energy earnings only partly compensates for the
damage from sanctions to the economy overall, analysts say.
“The impact of sanctions on Russia's economy is very uneven. In
some sectors, it has been catastrophic, such as the car industry.
The oil sector is relatively unscathed for now,” said Janis Kluge,
senior associate at the German Institute for International and
Security Affairs.
Besides autos, he cited IT and finance as two of the sectors
worst hit.
“These sectors have had the strongest links to the West and are
consequently suffering the most,” Kluge added.
The ministry document projects energy export earnings will ease
to $255.8bln next year, still higher than the 2021 figure of
$244.2bln, according to Reuters news.
The economy ministry did not reply to a request for comment.
The average petrol export price will more than double this year
to $730 per 1,000 cubic meters, before gradually falling until the
end of 2025, according to the forecast.
Petrol flows from Russia, Europe's top supplier, are running at
reduced levels this year after one route was shut when Moscow sent
troops into Ukraine in February, some European countries were cut
off for refusing to pay for petrol in Russian roubles, and a
dispute broke out over repairs to a turbine for the Nord Stream 1
pipeline from Russia to Germany.
Petrol prices have surged as a result, confronting European
consumers with the threat of energy rationing this winter, and
inflation levels not seen for decades.
The economy ministry now forecasts pipeline gas volumes from
Russian exporter Gazprom will fall to 170.4 billion cubic metres
(bcm) this year, compared to its forecast published in May of
185bcm and versus 205.6bcm exported in 2021.
Russia has started to gradually increase its oil production
after sanctions-related curbs and as Asian buyers have increased
purchases, leading Moscow to increase its forecasts for output and
exports until the end of 2025, the document showed.
Gazprom has also announced petrol supplies are increasing to
China, but has not provided detail while Europe remains by far the
bigger market for Russian gas.
Overall, economy ministry forecasts seen by Reuters news agency
earlier this week suggest the Russian economy is dealing with
sanctions related to Russia's military operation against Ukraine
better than Moscow initially feared and the economy will contract
less than expected.
At one point, the ministry had warned the economy was on track
to shrink by more than 12 percent, in what would be the biggest
fall in economic output since the collapse of the Soviet Union and
a resulting crisis in the mid-1990s.
It now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink 4.2
percent this year and real disposable incomes to fall 2.8
percent.
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