Finnish intel review sheds light on relations with Russia

(MENAFN- Asia Times) The Finnish Defense Forces (FDF) have come out with their first-ever . It is a comprehensive document with due regard to the global security picture and legal caveats in the Finnish security apparatus. 

The presumable goal of the document, however, is to highlight priorities, set or conform to lexicon and engage in subliminal strategic signaling. 

The review designates Finland's military operating environment or area of concern naturally as Northern Europe and the Baltic Sea region, where ''freedom of navigation, security of supply and commerce'' are paramount to Finland's prosperity.

As Finland's largest neighbor and a potent military power, Russia occupies an important place in its strategic assessments. With a direct reference to Russia, the review expresses concerns about the ability and likelihood of states achieving their goals through military means in the Baltic Sea region. 

The concern is in all probability a reference to Russia's force posture and political rhetoric against the Baltic states – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – as members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A conflict between Russia and NATO in the region would have ramifications on Finland's security and prosperity because of geographical proximity to terrain and waters where hostilities might break out.

Bilaterally, the contemporary relationship between Finland and Russia is that of strategic restraint and avoiding direct antagonism, with some major exceptions. One such exception is the Finnish Security Intelligence Service, or SUPO (which is in charge of counterintelligence for Finland's homeland security), Russia the paramount threat in its December 2019 report.

In 2018, there were by Finnish forces on Sakkiluoto, a southwestern Finnish island that to has ''nine piers and one helipad.'' These facilities could plausibly be used for supporting gray-zone activities in and around Finland. Some such places could potentially serve as bases for shadowy agents of the Russian state who could use the facilities on these islands for asymmetric actions. 

The review also mentions the centrality of ''information systems'' to nations and how gray-zone tactics or the proverbial ''war by other means'' can be used to undermine a society's ''critical functions, sites and individuals,'' resulting in conflicts.

This concern is in line with the obsession and paranoia on both sides over what Russian strategic discourse features as and the West calls ''active measures'' and ''hybrid war.'' This is also consistent with the review's assertion that the intelligence and counterintelligence activities of foreign countries in and around Finland are back to the same high level as the Cold War. 

The symbol of Russo-Finnish cooperation, the Pyhäjoki nuclear power plant, also faces an , with cost overruns and doubts over ecological and geopolitical amenability. It is important to note that the designated agency in charge of developing the Northern Sea Route, ROSATOM (the Russian state nuclear energy company), is a major partner in this project too.

The Northern Sea Route's increasing feasibility and the race for exploiting natural resources in the Arctic are also identified in the review as influential factors for Finland's security environment. It highlights the recent designation of the Russian Northern Fleet as a headquartered in Murmansk as an indicator that Moscow takes security and capability enhancement in the Arctic seriously.

As major multilateral security cooperation agreements like the and the fall apart, Russia's and Finland's to mutual inspection visits under the is a ray of hope. 

It is interesting to note the and reactions coming out of Russian polity on the Finnish Military Intelligence Review. A member of the Russian Duma's Committee on International Affairs, Elena Panina, refers to Finland as ''one of the last neutral states in Europe striving to maintain normal relations with the Russian Federation'' and accuses the US of trying to draw Finland into an anti-Russia alliance such as NATO.

In conclusion, if the document is any indicator, Finland is likely to be cautious and pragmatic in its relationship with Russia in the coming months and years.

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