Harassment Of Taiwan An Ominous Clue To Trump 2.0 Foreign Policy

Nor would slapping tariffs on Taiwan-made chips help Trump achieve one of his major campaign promises: bringing down the cost of living for Americans.

Building a semiconductor factory typically requires five to eight years. Even if chip makers immediately responded to Trump's announcement by deciding to build their plants in the US, they would not start producing chips until Trump was out of office. In the meantime, the prices Americans pay for consumer electronics would likely rise steeply .

According to a 2023 study , American companies import 44 percent of their logic chips and 24 percent of their memory chips from Taiwan.

Trump's harassment of Taiwan is a problem for the Lai Ching-te government. Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) puts relatively heavy emphasis on the US as Taiwan's security guarantor.

The opposition Kuomintang (KMT), on the other hand, questions US dependability, echoing a similar theme found in PRC propaganda. A KMT-affiliated think tank said in January, for example, that Taiwan could not depend on military support from the Trump Administration and should seek to improve relations with China.

The partisan divide is reflected in the 2024 edition of a survey administrated by Taiwan's Academia Sinica and Soochow University. Among survey respondents who identified as DPP voters, 71% said they consider the US reliable. But only 16% of KMT voters held that view. Trump could help shift the Taiwan electorate toward support for politicians who favor policies more accommodating of Beijing's demands.

The new threat of tariffs against Taiwan-made semiconductors says something about US foreign policy more broadly. The second Trump Administration enters office hinting at two possible US grand strategies.

The first is a blunt unilateralism in which America unabashedly looks out only for number one and engages in international cooperation, including alliances, only if it is immediately and visibly profitable.

This is Trump's preferred approach. When it comes to tariffs, one of the foreign policy instruments most extolled by Trump and advisors such as Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro , both friends and foes get much the same treatment. Trump has threatened tariffs against Canada, Mexico and fellow NATO ally Denmark as well as cold adversary China.

The second possible US grand strategy is US-led collective security focused on countering China.

This approach sees US global influence as an asset that both directly and indirectly bolsters US security and prosperity. It seeks to leverage alliances and security partnerships as force multipliers that can help the US shape world affairs to America's advantage. Since China and its fellow Authoritarian Bloc members oppose important parts of America's global agenda, friends and allies who will help support that agenda have great value.

New Secretary of State Marco Rubio represents this view. Although he repeats the new party line that US allies must increase their defense spending so they are not free-riding on US protection, Rubio believes healthy alliances serve the US national interest. In his confirmation hearing, Rubio affirmed the usefulness of alliances. He met with his Quad (US, Japan, India and Australia) counterparts during his first full day on the job.

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Cost-benefit

These two approaches differ on whether or not America's security partnerships with other countries produce a return – in Rubio's words, making America“safer” – that justifies the costs the US pays to maintain these partnerships. For Trump, the answer is no, while Rubio would likely answer yes.

Taiwan is a politically and strategically important frontline state. Its continuing ability to resist involuntary and violent annexation by the PRC is beneficial to the US, even if Taiwan enjoys a trade surplus with the US and controls some of the market share in some industries that US companies covet.

Taiwan is also heavily overmatched economically and militarily by its hostile neighbor across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan pays for the weapons the US provides, and the US pays Taiwan no costs for military bases. Taiwan is a net contributor to the US-sponsored liberal regional order.

For these reasons, it is disappointing that Trump sees Taiwan as a target for a US shakedown. As in other Trump statements about Taiwan, unilateralism has prevailed over collective security. The idea of simply imposing a high US tariff on semiconductor imports has a superficial logic, but the practical impact would be politically, economically and strategically counterproductive. Perhaps Rubio will persuade Trump not to follow through.

Denny Roy is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu.

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