(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Akbar Novruz
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The Zangazur Corridor issue still remains a top story on the
headlines of the region's countries. The Iranian Foreign Ministry's
spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, found himself at the center of a media
whirlwind after his statement on the Zangazur corridor was quickly
circulated by Azerbaijani media outlets. But it wasn't long before
Armenia, caught in the crossfire, went into a panic. The response
was swift: Baghaei denied discussing Zangazur, claiming, according
to Iran's ISNA Agency, that the topic never crossed his lips.
Citing the statement by the Iran MFA spokesperson, the ISNA news
agency reports that the statement refers to the issue of fuel for
Iranian trucks on the border with Türkiye. Now let's analyze how
this "distortion" as some would proclaim happened.
Well, this all began with a report from Iran's official news
agencies about 1,000 Iranian trucks stranded at the border with
Türkiye, caught in a complex web of fuel and tax disputes. Iran had
stopped selling fuel to Turkish trucks, triggering a retaliatory
tax on Iranian trucks entering Türkiye. Baghaei addressed the
issue, mentioning a forthcoming delegation to resolve the fuel
dispute-but it was his comment that would reverberate:“This is
not a political issue, but a technical one.”
Despite Baghaei's clarification, the Iranian media played a
different game. It was Iran's own Etimad-a widely read but
non-official platform-that first spread the story about Zangazur.
Some Azerbaijani outlets, eager for details, used certain Iranian
sources, unknowingly falling victim to the manipulation. Even after
Baghaei's refutation, the story remained unchanged on Iranian
platforms, adding to the intrigue.
At its heart, the Zangazur corridor is more than just a
link-it's a crucial project shaping the future of Eurasia. It's a
bridge of peace, connecting Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Iran in a
dance of cooperation. Yet, Iran has long resisted the idea.
Why?
There are powerful reasons: first, the opening of Zangazur would
ease Azerbaijan's dependence on Iran by removing Nakhchivan from
the blockade. Secondly, it would allow Russia to expand its
influence in the Middle East, a region where Iran currently holds
sway.
As the geopolitical map shifts, a new dynamic is emerging.
Türkiye, a rising power in the Middle East, has weakened Iran's
position, especially against the backdrop of the Syrian conflict.
Iran now finds itself needing to engage with Türkiye or risk losing
even more of its already waning regional power.
The other concern for Iran is the potential loss of transit
revenues, which was previously mentioned in one
of our articles . Let's recite:
"The volume of transit goods passing through Iran has increased
by 30% compared to the previous year. From March 2023 to January
2024, 14.2 million tons of cargo transited Iran, generating
approximately $1 billion in revenue during these ten months. Given
Iran's ongoing economic distress exacerbated by sanctions since the
change of regime in 1979, this income is vital. The increasing
number and scope of sanctions have severely impacted Iran's
economic prospects, making transit revenue a critical lifeline.
Even by checking the reports on US Department's official website , we can easily say
how much the nation is deprived in terms of profitable gains. For
Iran, which is experiencing such economic and political distress,
earning income as a transit country is the last resort.
Additionally, Türkiye's foreign trade strategy has increasingly
prioritized Central Asia. In general, the realization of the
principles of the "United Turkic World" has seriously increased the
development trends towards Asia in Türkiye's foreign economic
policy. By the end of 2023, trade turnover between Türkiye and
Kazakhstan reached a record $6.4 billion, with Uzbekistan also
showing significant growth with a whopping 3 billion dollars and
with a prospect of reaching 5 billion dollars in the upcoming
years. Türkiye is one of the five main trading partners of the
Central Asian countries, and Türkiye has become the number one
exporter for Turkmenistan in recent years, surpassing China.
Therefore, if there is no Zangezur Corridor, Türkiye's increased
trade turnover in Central Asia will mean an opportunity for Iran to
obtain excellent transit revenues, and an additional obstacle and
more costs for Türkiye itself. We all know that, as Moscow is
preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine and redirecting its focus
away from the South Caucasus, Tehran is eager to assert its
influence in the region."
Azerbaijan, for its part, is demanding more than just access to
the corridor-it's calling for the free movement of goods, people,
and vehicles between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, with no customs
inspections or duties. Moreover, security guarantees must be
ensured to safeguard this strategic passage. But this is not about
undermining Armenia's sovereignty. On the contrary, the Zangazur
corridor benefits everyone. Armenia would gain access to
Azerbaijan's railways, boosting connectivity with Iran and Russia
while opening new economic opportunities for international
trade.
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev offered a pointed
reflection on the issue during an interview with local television
channels:
“We, as Azerbaijan, are not a source of danger for them
[Armenia]. We want peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus.
They should not be in the way. They should not act as a
geographical barrier between Türkiye and Azerbaijan. The Zangazur
corridor must and will be opened. The sooner they understand this,
the better it is. Why should we have to go to Nakhchivan, an
integral part of Azerbaijan, through different ways? We should have
a direct connection, and this connection does not question
Armenia's sovereignty. Simply put, they should fulfill the
provisions of the 19 November Statement. Everything is explicitly
stated there. We have been showing patience for more than four
years. For more than four years, we have wanted this to be resolved
through negotiations. How long will we have to wait and why should
we wait?”
The Zangazur corridor isn't just a matter of connecting
Nakhchivan to the rest of Azerbaijan. It's a gateway linking China
and Central Asia to Europe via the Azerbaijan-Türkiye transport
network.
Despite its longstanding support for Armenia, Iran stands to
benefit from the corridor's opening, yet its opposition persists.
This is not solely due to economic interests, as the corridor
offers Iran additional dividends. Instead, the true motivation
appears to be Iran's fear of Turkic unity and the growing national
consciousness of Turkic people within Iran.
Given Iran's current economic turmoil and looming energy crisis,
combined with the potential for further sanctions under a new U.S.
administration, Tehran may soon find itself compelled to shift its
stance on the Zangazur corridor. So how long will the region wait
to resolve this high-stakes geopolitical issue?
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