Will The Dialogue Between Government And PTI Yield Results?

(MENAFN- Tribal News Network) On December 22, Pakistan's Prime Minister, Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, formed a nine-member government coalition committee to hold negotiations with the country's largest opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). This decision came upon the recommendation of National Assembly Speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq.

On December 23, the first formal round of talks between the committees, chaired by the Speaker of the National Assembly, concluded at the Parliament House. According to the joint statement issued after the meeting, the talks were held in a cordial atmosphere. It was announced that the next round of negotiations would take place on January 2, where PTI is expected to present its "Charter of Demands."

While one faction of the government seems serious about the dialogue, another appears indifferent. Senator Irfan Siddiqui, a member of the government's negotiating committee from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, expressed optimism, saying, "We are entering talks with PTI with open minds and hearts, setting aside past grievances." However, Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, speaking to the media in London, stated, "PTI has agreed to talks under the compulsion of circumstances; don't expect sincerity in this."

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On the other hand, PTI has not stepped back from its threat of a civil disobedience movement. Current PTI chairman, Barrister Gohar Ali Khan, denied any discussions on civil disobedience during his meeting with Imran Khan. However, the party's Secretary of Information, Sheikh Waqas Akram, told Geo News that Imran Khan remains adamant about the civil disobedience movement.

This confusion has raised public questions about whether the talks will lead to any progress or if the negotiations are just for show. To explore this, TNN spoke with political analysts.

Will the Talks Lead to Progress?

Senior journalist and political analyst Salman Ghani, associated with Dunya News, termed the ongoing negotiations a significant breakthrough, citing the political deadlock that had led to increased polarization and unrest in Pakistan. According to Ghani, these talks are unlikely to yield immediate relief for Imran Khan but could result in consensus on some issues, paving the way for progress. He believes the negotiations will likely continue for weeks rather than days.

Maria Memon, a senior journalist and anchorperson on ARY News, expressed skepticism about the process, likening it to chasing a mirage. "I'm unsure about the mandate of the government's committee. Will the government or the establishment make the final decision?" She argued that PTI would need to mend its relations with the establishment, as the outcome of the talks largely hinges on their settlement with it.

Journalist and analyst Majid Nizami highlighted the unpredictability of Pakistan's political climate, recalling instances where progress seemed imminent but eventually diverged. According to him, while both sides appeared optimistic after the first meeting, the real outcome will only become clear as the talks progress.

What Could Be Offered at the Negotiating Table?

Salman Ghani suggested that for political stability, both parties would need to offer guarantees. He proposed that the government might assure PTI of midterm elections, possibly a year or two ahead of schedule. As for PTI, he noted that historically, opposition parties in Pakistan have relied on their relations with the establishment to carve out political pathways. However, PTI's relentless criticism of both the government and the establishment has left it cornered. These negotiations might allow PTI to reestablish its political role.

Maria Memon speculated that the government might demand PTI's acceptance of the Shehbaz-led administration and an agreement to hold midterm elections after three years. "It would be a significant concession if PTI retracts its demand for transparent elections by February 2024. But will Imran Khan agree to this? That remains a crucial question."

She also predicted that the government is unlikely to grant PTI much political space, as doing so could jeopardize its survival. The government may refrain from offering relief to Imran Khan or easing legal pressures to avoid complicating its position.

Majid Nizami added that the government might request PTI to lower the political temperature, which could indirectly help stabilize the economy. PTI, on the other hand, might gain relief in terms of arrests and legal cases, with some party members potentially being released. However, PTI would still need to fight its legal battles independently.

Why Did PTI Agree to Negotiate with the Government?

Maria Memon suggested that PTI's decision to engage in talks with the government is a strategic move to call the government's bluff, as it has consistently claimed that PTI only seeks dialogue with the establishment, not political parties.

Dr. Hasan Askari, a political analyst with Dunya News, cited two reasons for PTI's shift. First, repeated protests and demonstrations have not yielded the desired results, leaving PTI unable to dominate the government. This has prompted the party to reconsider its strategy and come to the negotiating table.

Majid Nizami believes that PTI remains open to dialogue with the establishment, as their primary differences stem from there. However, given the lack of positive response from the establishment, PTI opted to negotiate with the political government. He stressed that any decisions during these talks would likely involve the establishment, as the political government cannot act independently in this matter.

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